{
  "abstract": "The auditory oddball protocol is widely used to study neural responses to unexpected events. In conventional designs, however, stimulus statistics are stationary: deviants do not indicate environmental change and therefore should not drive learning. Here, we introduce change-point oddball, a passive, no-report protocol in which the standard-oddball mapping reverses at unpredictable change points, requiring inference over latent environmental states. We measured pupil-linked arousal in three human cohorts. Pupil responses were larger for state-specific oddballs than standards, decayed across newly established standards after state changes, and scaled with model-derived change-point probability. A many-standards control experiment implicated a prediction-based rather than repetition-based mechanism. Finally, within participants, stronger pupil encoding of change-point probability during the passive task was associated with greater change-point-sensitive belief updating in a separate active navigation task. Thus, passive change-point oddball preserves core signatures of adaptive belief updating, enabling cross-species and clinical investigations.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Swammerdam Institute for Life Sciences, University of Amsterdam"
  ],
  "article_type": "New results",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 11,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "L. Kopel"
    },
    {
      "name": "J. M. Hoomans"
    },
    {
      "name": "E. van Gastel"
    },
    {
      "name": "J. V. Tijhuis"
    },
    {
      "name": "M. van de Graaf"
    },
    {
      "name": "M. Shafik"
    },
    {
      "name": "S. Matthijsse"
    },
    {
      "name": "P. R. Murphy"
    },
    {
      "name": "S. van Gaal"
    },
    {
      "name": "M. Suzuki"
    },
    {
      "name": "J. W. de Gee"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/05h42dcf10j50.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.64898/2026.09.25.754382",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.25.754382v1.full",
  "id": "05h42dcf10j50",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.25.754382v1",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "biorxiv",
      "neuroscience"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2805|Memory and Neural Mechanisms"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7215074639",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.25.754382v1.full.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-25",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/05h42dcf10j50.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:25:38Z",
      "native_id": "10.64898/2026.09.25.754382",
      "source": "biorxiv",
      "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.25.754382v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "biorxiv:neuroscience",
      "subfield": "neuroscience"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Change-point oddball elicits pupil-linked signatures of Bayesian belief updating",
  "title_text": "Change-point oddball elicits pupil-linked signatures of Bayesian belief updating",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:25:38Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/05h42dcf10j50",
  "venue": "bioRxiv",
  "versions": []
}