{
  "abstract": "Conventional geothermal resources are typically associated with volcanically active plate boundaries, yet collisional orogens can also sustain elevated heat flow through radiogenic enrichment, crustal thickening, and rapid exhumation. Northern Pakistan, encompassing the Himalaya, Kohistan, and Karakoram terranes, hosts numerous hot springs aligned with major fault zones despite the absence of active volcanism. The origin of this anomalous heat remains debated, reflecting the lack of surface heat-flow measurements and limited geophysical constraints on the lithosphere. To address this gap, we apply 1D steady-state, 1D transient, and 2D advective-conductive thermal models with radiogenic heat production and exhumation-driven heat transport to the Nanga Parbat Massif, Kohistan arc, and Karakoram terrane. These models, in the absence of direct heat-flow measurements in the region, remain uncalibrated; however, they bracket a range of plausible thermal states. Steady-state models show a strong dependence of geotherms on crustal radiogenic heat production (RHP): in the NPM, upper-crustal enrichment (4–5 µW m ⁻³ ) yields surface heat flow of 85–120 mW m ⁻² , whereas Kohistan produces lower values (50–85 mW m ⁻² ) due to its mafic-dominated crust. Karakoram yields intermediate heat flow (65–103 mW m ⁻² ), with RHP concentrated in the batholith and metamorphic complexes. These models also reveal that surface-derived RHP values cannot be extrapolated to the mid- and lower crust: doing so yields Moho temperatures inconsistent with petrological and geophysical constraints, implying redistribution of heat-producing elements during partial melting and differentiation. 1D transient models suggest that exhumation of 2–3 mm yr ⁻¹ in the NPM can further amplify geotherms, producing surface heat flow up to 220–250 mW m ⁻² and inverting deep geotherms at 20 km in exploratory end-member scenarios. 2D models capture the combined effects of radiogenic enrichment, exhumation, and rugged topography. Isotherms are compressed beneath valleys and expanded beneath peaks, with the strongest thermal anomalies localized in the NPM and Karakoram. Surface heat-flow patterns reflect these contrasts, ranging from ∼120 mW m ⁻² (moderate scenarios) to nearly 180 mW m ⁻² (fast exhumation). Péclet numbers ranging from below unity to greater than unity indicate that exhumation progressively increases the contribution of advective heat transport. Crustal differentiation indices calculated from the model-derived heat-flow estimates are consistent with strong upper-crustal enrichment of heat-producing elements in the NPM and Karakoram, indicating their redistribution during crustal thickening and partial melting. The models suggest that the region can sustain anomalously high heat flow through the interplay of RHP, exhumation, and crustal differentiation. For northern Pakistan, these results provide a physical basis for the widespread hydrothermal activity and indicate elevated subsurface temperatures in the NPM and Karakoram, identifying them as regions that warrant further site-specific investigation of reservoir properties and hydrogeological conditions.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "University of Göttingen (Göttingen, Germany)",
    "LIAG Institute for Applied Geophysics (Hanover, Germany)"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 7,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1
      ],
      "name": "Muhammad Anees"
    },
    {
      "name": "David Hindle",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-2884-1859"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1
      ],
      "name": "Ernesto Meneses Rioseco",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-9984-6767"
    },
    {
      "name": "Jonas Kley",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-6970-6031"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bernd Leiss",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-0521-6009"
    },
    {
      "name": "Mumtaz Muhammad Shah"
    },
    {
      "name": "Javed Akhter Qureshi"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/080e40vk0sx86.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.5194/se-17-1117-2026",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "080e40vk0sx86",
  "issns": [
    "1869-9529"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://se.copernicus.org/articles/17/1117/2026/",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2105|Geothermal Energy Systems and Applications"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W4416300698",
  "pdf_url": "https://se.copernicus.org/articles/17/1117/2026/se-17-1117-2026.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-14",
  "publisher": "Copernicus GmbH",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/080e40vk0sx86.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:20:40Z",
      "native_id": "10.5194/se-17-1117-2026",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://se.copernicus.org/articles/17/1117/2026/"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "issn:1869-9529",
      "subfield": "geophysics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Geothermal implications of the lithosphere's thermal structure in northern Pakistan",
  "title_text": "Geothermal implications of the lithosphere's thermal structure in northern Pakistan",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:20:40Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/080e40vk0sx86",
  "venue": "Solid Earth",
  "versions": [
    {
      "doi": "10.5194/egusphere-2025-5252",
      "pid": null,
      "relation": "preprint",
      "title": null,
      "venue": null
    }
  ]
}