{
  "abstract": "We introduce the Boom-Busty Marketron, a model of a multi-asset market in which the demand of a single collective investor moves prices and itself depends on market performance. This creates an investor-market reflexive loop in the spirit of Soros's theory. The market state is stationary without being at equilibrium: a non-equilibrium steady state (NESS), with broken detailed balance and a probability current circulating between mispricing, demand and volatility. While stochastic volatility with the leverage effect already breaks detailed balance and makes the market dynamics irreversible, the investor-market loop pushes the market further away from equilibrium. Calibrated to the S\\&P 500 from 1996 to 2024 by simulated moments, the model reproduces the stylised facts of returns together with quantitative metrics of the market, including cross-sectional ones, and its return and cycle statistics stay stationary for a century and a half on the 1996--2010 inputs. Its central emergent behaviour is a boom-bust cycle, whose frequency meets the S\\&P's within one-sigma ranges. The model also produces a default rate of the order of that of investment-grade issuers, prices inside Fisher Black's factor of two of value, the dumb-money effect of Frazzini and Lamont, and a measurable arrow of time. Standard long-short factors built from its cross section rotate through the cycle, and so do its industry groups along the defensive axis.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2611.01185",
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Igor Halperin"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/09wt6gnwmy225.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2611.01185",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "09wt6gnwmy225",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.01185",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC-ND-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC-ND 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "nlin.AO"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "q-fin.GN"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "q-fin.ST"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2611.01185",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-11-01",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/09wt6gnwmy225.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-03T12:20:59Z",
      "native_id": "2611.01185",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.01185"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:nlin.AO",
      "subfield": "statistical-nonlinear"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Boom-Busty Marketron as a Model of Market Dynamics: How Investor-Market Reflexivity Amplifies Non-Equilibrium",
  "title_text": "Boom-Busty Marketron as a Model of Market Dynamics: How Investor-Market Reflexivity Amplifies Non-Equilibrium",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-05T15:20:18Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/09wt6gnwmy225",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}