{
  "abstract": "BackgroundHot and cold air temperatures have been associated with fatal thrombotic cardiovascular disease, but evidence for non-fatal outcomes and drivers of susceptibility remains limited. Given the lasting cardiovascular effects of COVID-19 and its potential interaction with temperature exposure, we examined the impact of air temperature on thrombotic cardiovascular disease, as well as effect modification by COVID-19 and person-level characteristics.\n\nMethodsWe conducted case time series studies using whole-population electronic health records in England (Jan 2020-Dec 2022), linked with small-area daily mean air temperature. We estimated cumulative short-term effects of temperature on arterial thrombotic events (AEs), venous thrombotic events (VEs), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and ischaemic stroke (IS), using conditional Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear models, including interactions with COVID-19 status and person-level characteristics.\n\nResultsAmong 49,080,575 individuals, we identified 604,655 AEs, 215,090 VEs, 275,390 AMIs, and 231,485 ISs. Hot temperatures (99th percentile 23.1{degrees}C vs median 10.8{degrees}C) were associated with higher VE risk over 21 days (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.33, 95% CI 1.21-1.47), particularly among older adults, those with pre-existing conditions, and individuals of Black ethnic group. Cold temperatures (1st percentile -0.7{degrees}C vs median) were associated with AMI over 14 days (IRR 1.13, 95% CI 1.05-1.21), especially among those aged [≥]65 years. No associations were found for AEs or IS. Cold temperatures increased VE risk among individuals with COVID-19 in the prior 6 months (IRR 1.40, 95% CI 1.05- 1.86), but not others.\n\nConclusionsSusceptibility to temperature-related thrombotic events varies across population groups and may change following recent infectious disease, such as COVID-19.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Karolinska Institutet"
  ],
  "article_type": "PUBLISHAHEADOFPRINT",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 19,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "I. J. Walter"
    },
    {
      "name": "A. Sampri"
    },
    {
      "name": "T. Bolton"
    },
    {
      "name": "S. Boulitsakis Logothetis"
    },
    {
      "name": "S. Pandey"
    },
    {
      "name": "L. Olivetti"
    },
    {
      "name": "M. Martellini O Nocentini"
    },
    {
      "name": "N. Conrad"
    },
    {
      "name": "Y. Li"
    },
    {
      "name": "F. Chalmers"
    },
    {
      "name": "J. Farrell"
    },
    {
      "name": "R. Denholm"
    },
    {
      "name": "S. H. Y. Ip"
    },
    {
      "name": "L. F. Brizzi"
    },
    {
      "name": "G. Messori"
    },
    {
      "name": "A. De La Cruz Libardi"
    },
    {
      "name": "A. Gasparrini"
    },
    {
      "name": "A. Wood"
    },
    {
      "name": "E. Raffetti"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0ct2v0w6nefdb.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.64898/2026.09.02.26358673",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.02.26358673v1.full",
  "id": "0ct2v0w6nefdb",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.02.26358673v1",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "medrxiv",
      "epidemiology"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2307|Climate Change and Health Impacts"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7211931750",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.02.26358673v1.full.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-02",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0ct2v0w6nefdb.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:54Z",
      "native_id": "10.64898/2026.09.02.26358673",
      "source": "medrxiv",
      "url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.02.26358673v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "medrxiv:epidemiology",
      "subfield": "epidemiology-public-health"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Air temperature and thrombotic cardiovascular disease in England: case time series studies using whole-population electronic health records during 2020-2022",
  "title_text": "Air temperature and thrombotic cardiovascular disease in England: case time series studies using whole-population electronic health records during 2020-2022",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:54Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0ct2v0w6nefdb",
  "venue": "medRxiv",
  "versions": []
}