{
  "abstract": "Background and objectiveThe WHO growth reference judges a childs height against the population at one age, without using the childs own earlier growth. This study built and validated a quantile regression based conditional growth reference predicting a childs future height for age distribution from early growth status.\n\nMethodsUsing deidentified longitudinal annual school children health check data from three major cities in Vietnam, this study linked a baseline height and BMI for age Z score near age 6 to outcome visits near age 12 or 15 in 4,857 children. A linear quantile regression and a pooled quantile generalized additive model, fit by sex, were compared against a linear benchmark and a naive persistence model on a held out test set, using pinball loss, interval coverage, and width against the WHO 90% band. This study also tested adding growth phenotype and checked generalization across the three cities.\n\nResultsThe pooled model outperformed the discrete quantile regression in every group. Every individualized 90% interval was narrower than the WHO band, by 34.6 to 54.5%. Growth phenotype improved accuracy in most groups. The model generalized well to a held out Hanoi or Haiphong but poorly to a held out Ho Chi Minh City, where coverage fell to between 0.35 and 0.52, though the all-city model stayed well calibrated for Ho Chi Minh City itself.\n\nConclusionConditional quantile modeling gives individualized growth predictions markedly narrower than a fixed population reference and gains further from growth phenotype, but needs local validation before use at an unrepresented site.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Vinmec International Hospital, Hanoi, Vietnam"
  ],
  "article_type": "PUBLISHAHEADOFPRINT",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "N. T. Ho"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0gg0av6mt3pta.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.64898/2026.09.23.26363771",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.23.26363771v1.full",
  "id": "0gg0av6mt3pta",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.23.26363771v1",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "medrxiv",
      "pediatrics"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2735|Human Health and Disease"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214194149",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.23.26363771v1.full.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-23",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0gg0av6mt3pta.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:19:19Z",
      "native_id": "10.64898/2026.09.23.26363771",
      "source": "medrxiv",
      "url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.23.26363771v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "medrxiv:pediatrics",
      "subfield": "reproductive-child"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Conditional Growth References for Vietnamese Children: Quantile Regression of Growth Distributions and Phenotypes",
  "title_text": "Conditional Growth References for Vietnamese Children: Quantile Regression of Growth Distributions and Phenotypes",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:19:19Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0gg0av6mt3pta",
  "venue": "medRxiv",
  "versions": []
}