{
  "abstract": "Objectives: To compare the pandemic era trajectories of dengue; chikungunya; and hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Thailand\n\nMethods: We conducted a national ecological interrupted time series analysis using weekly surveillance data from all 77 Thai provinces from 2016 to 2025. Segmented quasi-Poisson regression with Fourier terms for annual seasonality estimated the level and slope changes at a calendar-based 2020 break point; sensitivity analyses used later break points.\n\nResults: The analysis included 40579 province-week observations including 790263 dengue, 32265 chikungunya, and 713822 HFMD cases. The estimated level incidence rate ratios at week 1 of the 2020 break point were 0.39 for dengue (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.32-0.48), 0.54 for chikungunya (95% CI 0.41-0.71), and 0.51 for HFMD (95% CI 0.38-0.69). Dengue rebounded above pre-pandemic levels by 2023, chikungunya declined after the 2018-2020 outbreak, and HFMD’s mean annual incidence in 2023–2025 exceeded the pre-pandemic baseline by approximately 26%.\n\nConclusions: These contrasting trajectories support the need for comparative multi-disease surveillance. Ecological designs cannot separate the contribution of transmission ecology from epidemic history or other time-varying factors.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Department of Disease Control, Bamrasnaradura Infectious Diseases Institute, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand",
    "Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, SIMAD University, Mogadishu, Somalia",
    "Faculty of Medicine, School of Global Health, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand"
  ],
  "article_type": "research article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Wannarat Pongpirul"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Mohamed Mustaf Ahmed"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Krit Pongpirul"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0krp702tedaxj.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1016/j.ijregi.2026.101037",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13722057/?tool=EBI",
  "id": "0krp702tedaxj",
  "issns": [
    "2772-7076"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13722057",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "heading",
      "Original Report"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2739|Mosquito-borne diseases and control"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7220844036",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13722057/pdf/?tool=EBI",
  "pmcid": "PMC13722057",
  "pmid": "42964826",
  "published": "2026-10-07",
  "publisher": "Elsevier",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0krp702tedaxj.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-31T12:21:37Z",
      "native_id": "PMC:PMC13722057",
      "source": "europepmc",
      "url": "https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13722057"
    },
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-03T12:22:38Z",
      "native_id": "PMC13722057",
      "source": "pmc",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijregi.2026.101037"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "openalex:2739|Mosquito-borne diseases and control",
      "subfield": "epidemiology-public-health"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Contrasting pandemic era trajectories of dengue; chikungunya; and hand, foot, and mouth disease in Thailand using national surveillance findings, 2016–2025",
  "title_text": "Contrasting pandemic era trajectories of dengue; chikungunya; and hand, foot, and mouth disease in Thailand using national surveillance findings, 2016–2025",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-03T12:22:38Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0krp702tedaxj",
  "venue": "IJID regions",
  "versions": []
}