{
  "abstract": "目的分析全球极端降水的时空演变特征，阐明其与年总降水之间的区域差异规律。方法基于ERA5-Land小时尺度降水数据，在参考期（1991—2020年）内采用百分位法确定每个网格点的日降水量第95和第99百分位阈值（R95和R99），并计算1991—2024年PRCPTOT（年内总降水量）、极端降水指标R95p（超过R95阈值的年降水量）和R99p（超过R99阈值的年降水量）。结合IPCC AR6气候分区，利用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验、Sen′s slope估计及Pettitt突变检验，系统分析全球极端降水的空间格局、长期变化趋势及突变特征。结果1）全球极端降水呈现显著的气候带依赖性和空间非均匀性，高值主要集中于热带气候区及地形迎风坡区域；其中，R95p的空间分布总体上与PRCPTOT一致，而R99p表现出更强的局地集中性。2）从线性趋势特征来看，大陆性与极地气候区年总降水与极端降水以上升趋势为主，干旱与半干旱气候区以下降趋势为主；热带气候区多数区域在年总降水变化不显著甚至略有下降的情况下，极端降水仍呈上升趋势；温带气候区变化最为复杂，呈上升、下降与相对稳定并存的分异特征。趋势显著性检验表明，热带地区尤其是赤道附近极端降水增强最为突出。3）Pettitt突变检验结果显示，相较于年总降水，极端降水在更多气候分区中检测到显著突变，且突变幅度整体更明显。PRCPTOT在突变前后总体呈下降趋势，而R95p和R99p均表现出增强趋势，其中R99p的突变幅度更大。结论极端降水较年总降水更敏感地反映气候变暖背景下水文循环的结构性变化，其区域响应差异显著。部分区域极端降水的增强趋势已难以通过年总降水变化有效体现，表明未来气候风险评估与水文过程研究需更加关注极端降水变化。",
  "abstract_shown": true,
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  "article_type": null,
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  "author_total": 6,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "侯志燚"
    },
    {
      "name": "尤彬霁"
    },
    {
      "name": "梁康锐"
    },
    {
      "name": "李昊陽"
    },
    {
      "name": "朝一卓"
    },
    {
      "name": "刘刚"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0v9tc4w96k17s.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": null,
  "fulltext_url": "http://www.stbcxb.com.cn/zh/article/doi/10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2026.05.001/",
  "id": "0v9tc4w96k17s",
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  "licence": "CC-BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "lcc",
      "GE1-350"
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      "lcc",
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  "openalex": null,
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  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-24",
  "publisher": "Editorial Department of Journal of Soil and Water Conservation",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0v9tc4w96k17s.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T13:44:46Z",
      "native_id": "955aec191bac489eafa19477b349b897",
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      "url": "http://www.stbcxb.com.cn/zh/article/doi/10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2026.05.001/"
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  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "lcc:GE1-350",
      "subfield": "environmental-science"
    }
  ],
  "title": "基于ERA5-Land数据的全球极端降水时空特征",
  "title_text": "基于ERA5-Land数据的全球极端降水时空特征",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T13:44:46Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0v9tc4w96k17s",
  "venue": "Shuitu Baochi Xuebao",
  "versions": []
}