{
  "abstract": "Short-range hindcasts of measured wave spectra are evaluated using a recurrent model initialized by one hourly buoy spectrum and supplied with local wind, fetch and depth. Measurements from three Baltic Sea stations are combined for training in 2017--2020, validation in 2021 and testing in 2022. ERA5 reanalysis supplies winds throughout the twelve-hour prediction interval. The comparison examines supervision of spectral variance, peak frequency and peak amplitude, followed by empirical wind-sea bounds and a local relaxation constraint. Variance and peak-frequency supervision gives the lowest spectral error within the data-driven comparison, whereas additional peak-amplitude supervision gives the lowest wave-height error. In the matched physical comparison, relaxation reduces height RMSE by 5.01\\% to \\PhPtwoHs{}~cm. Extending this constraint through hours 13--24, without spectral targets at those hours, reduces primary spectral RMSE by 2.31\\% to \\PhPthreeSpec{}~$\\unitE$. Upper-bound constraints increase errors. Wind-condition comparisons show spectral gains from extended relaxation in increasing, decreasing and steady strong winds, with little change in steady weak winds. The results support modest, objective-dependent benefits from local physical guidance. Wave-height scores concern the retained frequency band, and operational forecasting and transfer to independent stations remain to be evaluated.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.29306",
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Sander Rikka"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0ve5k9dcqjn9v.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.29306",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "0ve5k9dcqjn9v",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29306",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "cs.LG"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.ao-ph"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "1910|Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7223235018",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.29306",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-21",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0ve5k9dcqjn9v.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:34:19Z",
      "native_id": "2610.29306",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.29306"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "arxiv:physics.ao-ph",
      "subfield": "atmospheric"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Data-driven and physics-guided hindcasting of measured wave spectra",
  "title_text": "Data-driven and physics-guided hindcasting of measured wave spectra",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:34:19Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0ve5k9dcqjn9v",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}