{
  "abstract": "When applying synthetic control to compositional outcomes (budget, vote shares), researchers commonly minimize Euclidean distances between raw shares. I propose constructing synthetic controls in Aitchison geometry, using centered log-ratio coordinates to select donor weights and form counterfactuals. This approach respects proportional comparisons and is exactly invariant to common multiplicative changes in relative odds. Under a multinomial-choice model, its weights summarize similarity in relative utility indices. Monte Carlo simulations, including a CES allocation model, show that this method performs better when relative incentives determine shares. An application to U.S. school finance demonstrates that this choice can alter reported inference.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2607.16991",
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Onil Boussim"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0vw2wnz1cb2qr.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2607.16991",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "0vw2wnz1cb2qr",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.16991",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "econ.EM"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.ME"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2607.16991",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-17",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0vw2wnz1cb2qr.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:22:29Z",
      "native_id": "2607.16991",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.16991"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.ME",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Compositional Synthetic Controls",
  "title_text": "Compositional Synthetic Controls",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:22:29Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0vw2wnz1cb2qr",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}