{
  "abstract": "This study models the multi-phase hydrodynamic atomization, near-surface jet shattering, and transient longitudinal advection-diffusion transport of high-pressure crude oil plumes within a tidally driven tropical estuary. It maps the 38-day uncontained wellhead failure at the Santa Barbara South Well-1 (OML 29) in Opu-Nembe, Bayelsa State, Nigeria, to quantify sub-surface contaminant migration paths. Hydrodynamic and chemical concentration data were compiled across a 10 km × 1 km estuarine corridor enveloping 47 remote communities. Ambient water samples (N = 120) were extracted from the water column using decontaminated Niskin sampler grids, stabilized, and processed via Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) to quantify Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH). Estuarine water surface elevation and multi-directional flow profiles were captured via a bottom-mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP). A two-dimensional depth-averaged finite-difference hydrodynamic model (x = y = 50 m) was coupled to an isentropic choked-jet discharge algorithm to calculate transient plume dispersion across a 12.4-hour Semi-diurnal tidal cycle. Thermodynamic derivations show that the reservoir pressure (4.2 MPa) drove a choked multi-phase discharge velocity (vjet  145.24 m/s), producing aerodynamic Weber numbers far exceeding critical breakup thresholds (We  100). This jet velocity shattered the liquid stream into ultra-fine droplets, driving immediate emulsification and chemical dissolution into the sub-surface water column. The cross-validated model isolated a strong phase-lag dynamic controlling transport. Flood-tide vectors drove the dissolved plume upstream, while ebb-tide drawdown compressed the mixing column, funneling persistent hydrocarbon matrices directly into low-velocity intertidal mangrove channels. This mechanism matched a peak measured near-source TPH concentration of 52.40 ± 2.62 mg/L at station AQ-01, representing a five-fold exceedance of national regulatory acute aquatic hazard boundaries. Model cross-validation yielded a Mean Absolute Error (MAE = 0.024 ± 0.003 mg/L), a low Fractional Bias (+0.012), a FAC2 index of 0.945, and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE = 0.912). Conventional spill models that assume simple surface-slick transport underestimate the spatial extent and velocity of sub-surface estuarine plume migration. Upstream maritime contingency frameworks must shift from surface booming loops to implement real-time hydro-telemetry tracking grids. Environmental impact criteria should mandate continuous downhole automated isolation systems to prevent sub-surface resource fouling within vulnerable coastal delta networks.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Okuroghoboye Diepreye Itugha"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0wmxgzy85aphy.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.31223/x5vf79",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "0wmxgzy85aphy",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/14898/",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "bepress",
      "Advection-diffusion equations"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Engineering"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Estuarine transport"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Finite-difference methods"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Hydrodynamic modeling"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Isentropic choked flow"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Total petroleum hydrocarbons"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2310|Oil Spill Detection and Mitigation"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7212073285",
  "pdf_url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/object/14898/download/25897/",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-09",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0wmxgzy85aphy.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:26Z",
      "native_id": "14898",
      "source": "eartharxiv",
      "url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/14898/"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:2310|Oil Spill Detection and Mitigation",
      "subfield": "environmental-science"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Predictive Modeling of Hydrodynamic Dispersion for High-Pressure Atomized Crude Oil Plumes During Tidal Phase-Lag Loops in Santa Barbara Estuaries, Nigeria",
  "title_text": "Predictive Modeling of Hydrodynamic Dispersion for High-Pressure Atomized Crude Oil Plumes During Tidal Phase-Lag Loops in Santa Barbara Estuaries, Nigeria",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:26Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0wmxgzy85aphy",
  "venue": "EarthArXiv",
  "versions": []
}