{
  "abstract": "Background: Vitamin D lowers the risk of type 2 diabetes in adults with prediabetes. We assessed the long-term cost-effectiveness of vitamin D supplementation for preventing type 2 diabetes.\n\nMethods: We applied a validated microsimulation model to estimate long-term health and economic consequences of vitamin D in a representative cohort of 10,000 U.S. adults with prediabetes in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2013–2018 cohort. Treatment effects came from individual-participant data of three randomised trials of vitamin D versus placebo (D2d, USA, 2013–2018; DPVD, Japan, 2013–2019; Tromsø, Norway, 2008–2015; pooled analysis 2023). Cost-effectiveness was measured by an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) compared to no vitamin D. We conducted subgroup analyses by age, baseline fasting glucose level, body weight, and family history of diabetes. We performed one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Costs were in 2024 U.S. dollars. 10-year and lifetime time horizons were studied from a U.S. health care system perspective.\n\nFindings: In a NHANES-derived cohort of 4176 adults with prediabetes (mean age 53.3 years [SD 17.0]; 2024 [49%] female; 2603 [62%] non-Hispanic White, 488 [12%] non-Hispanic Black, 668 [16%] Hispanic, 417 [10%] other race/ethnicity), vitamin D supplementation reduced per-person lifetime costs by $3208 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] −$5974 to $171), increased lifetime QALYs by 0.12 (95% UI 0.05–0.19), and yielded a lifetime net monetary benefit of $15,483 (95% UI $8108–$21,907) at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY. Life-years gained were 0.27 per person (95% UI 0.06–0.50). Vitamin D reduced the lifetime cumulative incidence of diabetes by 8% (95% UI 6.4–10.6%). Diabetes complications were reduced by an average of 6.4% (95% UI 3.2–8.7%). There were little differences in ICERs across subgroups. Changes in intervention-related parameters had limited effects on the cost-effectiveness ratios across sensitivity analyses, and the intervention likewise remained cost-saving compared to no vitamin D under all simulation scenarios.\n\nInterpretation: Vitamin D supplementation may be an efficient use of health care resources for preventing type 2 diabetes in adults with prediabetes.\n\nFunding: Research Ireland (Grant Number: EPSPD/2022/165).",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Converge: Centre for Chronic Disease and Population Health Research, School of Population Health, RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dublin, Ireland",
    "Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, Department of Medicine, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA 02111, USA",
    "Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA"
  ],
  "article_type": "research article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 5,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Jonathan Briody"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Anastassios G. Pittas"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Ping Zhang"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Yixue Shao"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Edward Gregg"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0xrmjkfag3g8f.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1016/j.lana.2026.101543",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13728357/?tool=EBI",
  "id": "0xrmjkfag3g8f",
  "issns": [
    "2667-193X"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13728357",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "heading",
      "Articles"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2712|Vitamin D Research Studies"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7166367616",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13728357/pdf/?tool=EBI",
  "pmcid": "PMC13728357",
  "pmid": "42978884",
  "published": "2026-06-27",
  "publisher": "Elsevier",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0xrmjkfag3g8f.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-04T15:20:47Z",
      "native_id": "PMC:PMC13728357",
      "source": "europepmc",
      "url": "https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13728357"
    },
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-07T12:21:22Z",
      "native_id": "PMC13728357",
      "source": "pmc",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2026.101543"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "openalex:2712|Vitamin D Research Studies",
      "subfield": "endocrinology-metabolism"
    }
  ],
  "title": "The cost-effectiveness of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of type 2 diabetes in the United States: a microsimulation modelling study",
  "title_text": "The cost-effectiveness of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of type 2 diabetes in the United States: a microsimulation modelling study",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-07T12:21:22Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0xrmjkfag3g8f",
  "venue": "Lancet regional health. Americas",
  "versions": []
}