{
  "abstract": "We present a proof-of-concept pipeline that applies quantum amplitude estimation to the probability that a sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds a critical threshold at a given horizon. The pipeline combines a reduced two-factor Gaussian debt model linearized around its mean, quantum state preparation on a 32 x 32 grid, a weighted-adder circuit, an integer comparator, and Maximum Likelihood Amplitude Estimation (MLAE). On a noiseless statevector simulator with 500 shots per Grover power, the circuit estimate (a = 0.1152) agrees with the circuit's exact target amplitude (0.1153), and the observed estimation error is consistent with the amplitude-estimation scaling in the number of oracle calls. The model used here is deliberately simple: it admits a closed-form solution, so the contribution is a demonstration of the encoding and estimation workflow, not a practical advantage over classical methods. We discuss the conditions under which such a pipeline could become relevant and the obstacles that remain.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.41831",
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Jean-Sébastien Dessureault"
    },
    {
      "name": "Alitiana Mijoro Barisoa"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0z97k3x39pnvf.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.41831",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "0z97k3x39pnvf",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41831",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "quant-ph"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.41831",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-30",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0z97k3x39pnvf.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-02T12:21:15Z",
      "native_id": "2610.41831",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41831"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:quant-ph",
      "subfield": "quantum"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Toward Quantum Monte Carlo for Sovereign Debt Risk: A proof of concept",
  "title_text": "Toward Quantum Monte Carlo for Sovereign Debt Risk: A proof of concept",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-04T15:20:51Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0z97k3x39pnvf",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}