{
  "abstract": "The NASA/JPL CNEOS Fireball Data catalogue provides a near-global record of bright atmospheric entries but does not report per-event velocity covariance. We calibrate its kinematic accuracy using 19 events with independent reference trajectories and use optical, satellite, radar, and infrasound catalogues as source-specific controls. For nine modern high-quality comparisons, the CNEOS-minus-reference speed residual has mean -1.00 km s$^{-1}$ and standard deviation 0.86 km s$^{-1}$; variance decomposition assigns 0.77 km s$^{-1}$ to the CNEOS component. The radiant residuals have a 0.74 degree per-axis core plus one 16.3 degree outlier, so the extreme tail remains poorly determined. Seven of 354 complete CNEOS states are nominally hyperbolic without correction. A +0.9935 km s$^{-1}$ atmospheric-stage shift produces five additional crossings, but these are treated only as sensitivity cases. Polar-IM (2026 April 1) is the strongest post-2018 CNEOS anomaly, whereas independent GLM-LI stereo solutions yield 57.3 +/- 2.0 and 56.7 +/- 3.0 km s$^{-1}$, close to their direction-specific parabolic thresholds. We conclude that CNEOS can identify priority candidates, but secure interstellar classification requires an independent, uncertainty-bearing three-dimensional trajectory for the same event.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.06745",
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Volkan Duran"
    },
    {
      "name": "Abraham Loeb"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0znxrfjfr15ch.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.06745",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "0znxrfjfr15ch",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06745",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-SA-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-SA 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.EP"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.GA"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.IM"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "3103|Astro and Planetary Science"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7211990963",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.06745",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-06",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0znxrfjfr15ch.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:19:48Z",
      "native_id": "2609.06745",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06745"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.GA",
      "subfield": "galaxies"
    },
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.IM",
      "subfield": "instrumentation-methods"
    },
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.EP",
      "subfield": "planetary"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Calibration of CNEOS Fireball Velocities and the Robustness of Nominally Hyperbolic Events",
  "title_text": "Calibration of CNEOS Fireball Velocities and the Robustness of Nominally Hyperbolic Events",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-06T18:21:01Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/0znxrfjfr15ch",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}