{
  "abstract": "Maneuver detection of non-cooperative satellites is an essential task of space situational awareness. The interacting multiple model (IMM) filter has been applied to detect unannounced maneuvers, but the standard IMM assumes a fixed Markov transition probability matrix (TPM) that must be tuned without knowledge of the maneuver rate of the target. To avoid this tuning, adaptive-TPM approaches update the TPM online from statistics computed inside the IMM. However, these statistics already depend on the TPM through the mixing step, and this dependence forms a feedback loop. Under the dynamics mismatch of orbit tracking, the loop can keep the maneuver probability high in the absence of a maneuver or suppress its rise when a maneuver occurs. In this paper, the TPM is driven by the normalized innovation squared (NIS) of a reference coast filter that is not mixed with the IMM, and the NIS is mapped continuously to the coast-to-maneuver transition probability. The reference-driven IMM (RD-IMM) is evaluated with four space-based optical sensors tracking a geosynchronous target. RD-IMM detects small burns that the fixed-TPM IMM fails to detect, with few false declarations in maneuver-free runs, and avoids both failures of the closed-loop adaptation. Moreover, RD-IMM reduces the position error after a small in-track burn by more than 50% compared with the single-filter approaches.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.11242",
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Euiseok Han"
    },
    {
      "name": "Sangheon Choi"
    },
    {
      "name": "Seung-Hyun Kong"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/124hdxycw0rgr.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.11242",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "124hdxycw0rgr",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11242",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.IM"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "cs.SY"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "eess.SP"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "eess.SY"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "1702|Target Tracking and Data Fusion in Sensor Networks"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7221170952",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.11242",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-08",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/124hdxycw0rgr.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:27:54Z",
      "native_id": "2610.11242",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.11242"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.IM",
      "subfield": "instrumentation-methods"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Reference-Filter-Driven Transition Probabilities for IMM-Based Satellite Maneuver Detection",
  "title_text": "Reference-Filter-Driven Transition Probabilities for IMM-Based Satellite Maneuver Detection",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:27:54Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/124hdxycw0rgr",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}