{
  "abstract": "In the recent AI Model Intercomparison Project (AIMIP) benchmark, the ACE2.1-ERA5 emulator was shown to underestimate the true near-surface warming trend both during the training period and the out-of-sample extrapolation period. In this work, we present M-ACE2S (Masked-ACE2S), a modified version of the stochastic ACE2S model, which uses variable masking during training and reduces the reliance of M-ACE2S on any single input channel. We show that M-ACE2S improves long-term near-surface air temperature prediction. We also present a novel data normalization strategy called \"global mean removal\", which, combined with masking, further improves the near-surface temperature forecasts. We show that M-ACE2S outperforms the ACE2S baseline on in-sample data for ERA5 while improving training stability and generalizability of near-surface temperature to unseen forcing when paired with global mean removal.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.21012",
  "author_total": 5,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Alexey Yermakov"
    },
    {
      "name": "Troy Arcomano"
    },
    {
      "name": "Jeremy McGibbon"
    },
    {
      "name": "Brian Henn"
    },
    {
      "name": "Oliver Watt-Meyer"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/126rqm1zxk7c4.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.21012",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "126rqm1zxk7c4",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.21012",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.ao-ph"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Climate variability and models"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7222568492",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.21012",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-14",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/126rqm1zxk7c4.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:29:50Z",
      "native_id": "2610.21012",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.21012"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "arxiv:physics.ao-ph",
      "subfield": "atmospheric"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Variable Masking for Climate Emulation in ACE",
  "title_text": "Variable Masking for Climate Emulation in ACE",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:29:50Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/126rqm1zxk7c4",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}