{
  "abstract": "Refreshment samples are the standard remedy for panel attrition, and the identification results behind them maintain that participation does not change measurement. We characterize what a refreshment sample identifies about panel conditioning, modelled as a deterministic monotone map at reinterview, when attrition is unrestricted. A candidate map is consistent with the data if and only if the retention-scaled distribution of the stayers' implied latent outcomes is setwise dominated by the refreshment distribution; every such map is rationalized by an explicit attrition process. Without attrition the map is identified on the latent-outcome support; with attrition, a density-ratio condition governs the identified set, and tail behaviour alone does not determine it. For an unrestricted map the survivors' mean effect has the familiar trimming bounds; for an item with all categories reported, the model reduces to a test of no conditioning. Within a cohort, other waves, dropout patterns and entry-wave items leave the set unchanged unless restrictions link selection across waves. Under explicit selection restrictions, survival matching, symmetric matching and entry-wave correction identify survivor effects. We derive their biases and give rank conditions under which refreshment schedules identify curvature in the conditioning path. A Japanese panel illustrates the results.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.01654",
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Shoki Okubo"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/147ewqd8qse2d.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.01654",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "147ewqd8qse2d",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.01654",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "econ.EM"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.AP"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.ME"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "3312|Survey Methodology and Nonresponse"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7215974932",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.01654",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-01",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/147ewqd8qse2d.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:26:14Z",
      "native_id": "2610.01654",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.01654"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.AP",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Identifying Panel Conditioning with Refreshment Samples: Sharp Bounds and Design Assumptions",
  "title_text": "Identifying Panel Conditioning with Refreshment Samples: Sharp Bounds and Design Assumptions",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:26:14Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/147ewqd8qse2d",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}