{
  "abstract": "Daily athlete monitoring is widely used in elite soccer, but its value depends on whether routine data can help identify athlete-days more likely to be followed by self-reported next-day readiness decline. This retrospective study evaluated a temporally validated and calibrated model for prioritizing staff-review attention in elite female soccer. Using SoccerMon data, we analyzed 14,428 eligible athlete-days from 50 players. The outcome was same-athlete next-calendar-day self-reported readiness decline ≥0.5 athlete-specific SD calculated from at least five observed readiness values strictly before the index date. Models were trained in 2020 and evaluated in a held-out 2021 test set. Adding workload and wellness to readiness improved discrimination (Model 4 vs Model 0: AUC 0.7645 vs 0.7043; PR-AUC 0.5135 vs 0.3808); paired athlete-level bootstrap ΔAUC was 0.0592 (95% CI 0.0288–0.0891). Platt recalibration reduced Brier score from 0.1924 to 0.1460 without changing ranking. Reviewing the top 20% (1,672 athlete-days) captured 881 events (46.1%) versus 36.4% for Model 0. These retrospective results support cautious staff-review prioritization rather than demonstrated improvement in athlete management or performance, and prospective implementation testing and independent external validation are required before real-world use.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Chengdu Sport University, Chengdu, China"
  ],
  "article_type": "Research Article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Haojie Long"
    },
    {
      "name": "Longji Li"
    },
    {
      "name": "Lifeng Zhang"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/1abfjvzqe0t47.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1371/journal.pone.0358036",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "1abfjvzqe0t47",
  "issns": [
    "1932-6203"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0358036",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2732|Sports Performance and Training"
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      "plos",
      "/Biology and life sciences/Psychology/Behavior/Human performance"
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      "/Biology and life sciences/Sports science/Sports"
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      "plos",
      "/Biology and life sciences/Sports science/Sports and exercise medicine"
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      "/Research and analysis methods/Mathematical and statistical techniques/Statistical methods/Forecasting"
    ],
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      "/Social sciences/Psychology/Behavior/Human performance"
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      "plos",
      "/Social sciences/Psychology/Behavior/Recreation/Sports"
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  "openalex": "W7212166691",
  "pdf_url": "https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0358036&type=printable",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-10",
  "publisher": "Public Library of Science",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/1abfjvzqe0t47.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:56Z",
      "native_id": "10.1371/journal.pone.0358036",
      "source": "plos",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0358036"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "chemistry",
      "origin": "plos:materials science",
      "subfield": "materials-polymers"
    },
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "plos:statistical methods",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Prioritizing next-day readiness decline in elite female soccer using readiness, workload, and wellness data: A temporally validated and calibrated monitoring framework",
  "title_text": "Prioritizing next-day readiness decline in elite female soccer using readiness, workload, and wellness data: A temporally validated and calibrated monitoring framework",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:56Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/1abfjvzqe0t47",
  "venue": "PLOS One",
  "versions": []
}