{
  "abstract": "Early-life phenotypes frequently predict adult phenotypes through developmental 'silver-spoon' carry-over effects, but how strongly and under what circumstances? Using 40 years of individual-based data from a great tit (Parus major) population, we used covariance reaction norms to understand how the natal-to-adult body mass association shifts across temperature, rainfall, and population density gradients during both life stages. We show that the natal-adult mass correlation is substantial (r {approx} 0.7) but strongly environment-dependent. Reaction norm shapes across climatic and density axes point to distinct mechanisms, including compensatory growth under benign adult conditions and density-dependent modulation of early-life differences. We further show that the conditions experienced in adulthood largely drive these patterns and determine whether early-life advantages are retained, even when explicitly tested within an environmental-matching paradigm. Decomposing the correlation using 38 generations of pedigree data revealed no evidence of gene-by-environment interactions. Instead, the observed phenotypic correlation reaction norms could be attributed almost entirely to environmentally-sensitive non-genetic individual differences. Overall, our findings show that climatic and demographic shifts can substantially reshape developmental carry-over without altering the genetic architecture tying body mass across life stages, with implications for how reliably early-life mass can predict individual quality and adult traits in wild animal populations.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "University of Oxford"
  ],
  "article_type": "New results",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 5,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "D. Satarkar"
    },
    {
      "name": "D. Lopez-Idiaquez"
    },
    {
      "name": "L. Bliard"
    },
    {
      "name": "I. Sepil"
    },
    {
      "name": "B. C. Sheldon"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/1axkj1ppx507z.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.64898/2026.09.18.752706",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.18.752706v1.full",
  "id": "1axkj1ppx507z",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.18.752706v1",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "biorxiv",
      "ecology"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "1105|Animal Behavior and Reproduction"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214022106",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.18.752706v1.full.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-18",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/1axkj1ppx507z.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:23:49Z",
      "native_id": "10.64898/2026.09.18.752706",
      "source": "biorxiv",
      "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.18.752706v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "biorxiv:ecology",
      "subfield": "ecology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Strength of developmental carry-over varies continuously with environmental conditions in a wild bird population",
  "title_text": "Strength of developmental carry-over varies continuously with environmental conditions in a wild bird population",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:23:49Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/1axkj1ppx507z",
  "venue": "bioRxiv",
  "versions": []
}