{
  "abstract": "Colony demographic models often treat worker deaths as independent events, but shared environmental exposure may synchronize mortality within species. Using a 15-month field dataset of 18 Australian ant species and 106 cohorts, we quantified intra-specific mortality synchrony with the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) and tested body size and temperature as candidate correlates. Synchrony was widespread: credible intervals excluded zero in 9 of 18 species, and the assemblage mean ICC was 0.21 +/- 0.09, indicating that about 21% of daily mortality variance reflected shared within-species exposure. Body size did not buffer synchrony. Worker mass was unrelated to ICC (Spearman rho = +0.10, p = 0.69; WLS beta = +0.05, p = 0.35), decoupling how long workers live from when they die together. Temperature showed a suggestive lagged association: maximum temperature preceded mortality pulses by 1-7 days in 13 of 15 analyzable species, with mean peak r = 0.16, but no species survived Bonferroni correction. A sensitivity analysis using mean correlation across lags 1-7 days instead of the peak removed the assemblage-level signal (mean r = -0.03, p = 0.93), and ICC was unrelated to temperature-coupling strength (Spearman rho = -0.004, p = 0.99). Mortality synchrony is therefore widespread, size-independent, and only partly thermal. Species-specific thermal tolerance, rather than body mass, is a more promising candidate for explaining variation in synchronized mortality.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.26278",
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Alana Moscardi"
    },
    {
      "name": "Rafael da Silva"
    },
    {
      "name": "Gleycon Silva"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/1b95e17xnwmt3.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.26278",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "1b95e17xnwmt3",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.26278",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "q-bio.PE"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "1311|Insect and Arachnid Ecology and Behavior"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214088681",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.26278",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-01",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/1b95e17xnwmt3.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:23:44Z",
      "native_id": "2609.26278",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.26278"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "arxiv:q-bio.PE",
      "subfield": "evolutionary-biology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "How long versus when: worker mortality synchrony is widespread but decoupled from body size in Australian ants",
  "title_text": "How long versus when: worker mortality synchrony is widespread but decoupled from body size in Australian ants",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:23:44Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/1b95e17xnwmt3",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}