{
  "abstract": "The b-value, which controls the slope of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes, is a critical parameter in seismic forecasting. However, accurately measuring the true b-value is challenging due to the temporal and spatial variations in the completeness of instrumental seismic catalogs. In this study, we systematically compare traditional methods for estimating the b-value with newer approaches, specifically focusing on the b-more-positive estimator based on positive magnitude difference statistics. We conduct this comparison using both synthetic ETAS catalogs, with artificially introduced incompleteness, and instrumental catalogs from five regions: Japan, Italy, Southern California, Northern California, and New Zealand. Our analysis of synthetic ETAS catalogs demonstrates that traditional estimators systematically underestimate the b-value under incompleteness scenarios, whereas the b-more-positive estimator yields highly accurate results. Consistent patterns are found in instrumental catalogs, suggesting that conventional methods also underestimate the b-value in real datasets, with important implications for seismic forecasting. Moreover, the b-more-positive estimator provides robust evidence of significant differences in the b-value across the considered geographic regions.\n\nNon-technical summaryThe b-value measures the ratio of small to large earthquakes and could provide insights into the stress state of fault zones, making it a key tool in earthquake forecasting. However, accurately estimating the b-value is challenging because small earthquakes are often hidden by larger ones or missed due to detection limitations. In this study, we demonstrate that the novel b-more-positive estimator, which expands upon the innovative approach introduced by the b-positive estimator, provides a more reliable b-value calculation. Unlike traditional methods, which systematically underestimate the b-value, the b-more-positive estimator overcomes the challenges of data incompleteness. This conclusion is supported by extensive simulations using synthetic earthquake catalogs, where the impact of incomplete data was deliberately modeled.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Eugenio Lippiello"
    },
    {
      "name": "Cataldo Godano"
    },
    {
      "name": "Giuseppe Petrillo"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/1va1ptegg6gc6.bib",
  "cited_by": 1,
  "doi": "10.26443/seismica.v5i2.1689",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "1va1ptegg6gc6",
  "issns": [
    "2816-9387"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://hal.science/hal-05773508v1",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "hal",
      "0.math"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "1908|earthquake and tectonic studies"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7171076259",
  "pdf_url": "https://hal.science/hal-05773508/document",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-07-25",
  "publisher": "McGill",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/1va1ptegg6gc6.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:45Z",
      "native_id": "hal-05773508",
      "source": "hal",
      "url": "https://hal.science/hal-05773508v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:1908|earthquake and tectonic studies",
      "subfield": "geophysics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Improving estimates of the b-value in regional catalogs by means of the the b-more-positive method",
  "title_text": "Improving estimates of the b-value in regional catalogs by means of the the b-more-positive method",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:45Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/1va1ptegg6gc6",
  "venue": "Seismica",
  "versions": []
}