{
  "abstract": "Most people with dementia live in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), underscoring the need for LMIC-specific identification of high-risk individuals. This study aimed to develop and validate a simple dementia risk prediction model for these settings. Data from 7 10/66 Study sites were analyzed. Over 100 candidate predictors were screened based on existing models and the 2024 Lancet Commission, including LMIC-specific variables (eg, food insecurity and household assets). Predictors were selected using LASSO and modelled with the Fine–Gray method to generate a risk score. Predictive accuracy was pooled via meta-analysis. Eleven thousand one hundred forty-three participants were included, among whom 1069 (9.6%) developed dementia during follow-up. A 5-factor risk score comprising age, social engagement, physical activity, hypertension, and difficulty in handling money was developed. The pooled c-statistic was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.72-0.78), with good calibration across sites. Decision curve analysis showed a modest net benefit, with variation across countries. It is possible to predict incident dementia with reasonable accuracy using a simple model across different LMICs. Our findings support the use of context-specific risk assessment tools to identify individuals at elevated dementia risk in LMIC settings, which may inform resource allocation for dementia care services and public health planning.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": "research article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 20,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Eduwin Pakpahan",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-0058-1808"
    },
    {
      "name": "Zhongyang Guan",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-0737-3929"
    },
    {
      "name": "Mario Siervo"
    },
    {
      "name": "Graciela Muniz-Terrera"
    },
    {
      "name": "Devi Mohan"
    },
    {
      "name": "Daisy Acosta"
    },
    {
      "name": "Ana Luisa Sosa"
    },
    {
      "name": "Isaac Acosta"
    },
    {
      "name": "Juan J Llibre-Rodriguez"
    },
    {
      "name": "Jorge J Llibre-Guerra",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-2137-7750"
    },
    {
      "name": "Martin Prince"
    },
    {
      "name": "Alice Worrall"
    },
    {
      "name": "Aliya Naheed"
    },
    {
      "name": "Ashleigh S Vella"
    },
    {
      "name": "Jiyang Jiang"
    },
    {
      "name": "Darren M Lipnicki",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-1684-3577"
    },
    {
      "name": "Perminder S Sachdev",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-9595-3220"
    },
    {
      "name": "Louise Robinson"
    },
    {
      "name": "Matthew Prina"
    },
    {
      "name": "Blossom C M Stephan"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/246qfwbghks14.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1093/aje/kwag116",
  "fulltext_url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13733507/",
  "id": "246qfwbghks14",
  "issns": [
    "0002-9262",
    "1476-6256"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwag116",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "heading",
      "AcademicSubjects/MED00860"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Breakthroughs in Epidemiology"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2738|Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7163127538",
  "pdf_url": "https://academic.oup.com/aje/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/aje/kwag116/68450089/kwag116.pdf",
  "pmcid": "PMC13733507",
  "pmid": "42227563",
  "published": "2026-06-02",
  "publisher": "Oxford University Press",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/246qfwbghks14.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-08T12:23:16Z",
      "native_id": "PMC13733507",
      "source": "pmc",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwag116"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "openalex:2738|Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research",
      "subfield": "psychiatry"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Development and validation of a dementia risk prediction model for low- and middle-income countries: the 10/66 study",
  "title_text": "Development and validation of a dementia risk prediction model for low- and middle-income countries: the 10/66 study",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-08T12:23:16Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/246qfwbghks14",
  "venue": "American Journal of Epidemiology",
  "versions": []
}