{
  "abstract": "Rapid urban expansion can alter surface thermal conditions, yet these changes are often evaluated without accounting for climatic variability, demographic pressures, and uncertainty. This study investigated long-term land-use/land-cover (LULC) and thermal dynamics in Jhang District, Pakistan, for 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2025 using Landsat-based LULC classification, land surface temperature (LST), surface urban heat island (SUHI), Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI), spectral indices, Getis–Ord Gi* hotspot analysis, Pearson correlation, and multiple linear regression (MLR). Landsat-derived LST was independently compared with MODIS, while ERA5-Land, CHIRPS, and GHS-POP were used to characterize climatic and demographic context. Urban land expanded from 62.67 km² (0.98%) to 341.36 km² (5.37%), with 219.53 km² of Vegetated Land converted to Urban land. Maximum LST increased from 49.09 °C to 55.01 °C, while 99% confidence hot spots expanded from 856.42 to 1,041.31 km². LST was negatively correlated with NDVI and NDMI and positively correlated with NDBI and NDBaI. MLR models explained 54.2–83.1% of spatial LST variability. MODIS comparison showed strong spatial correspondence (R ² = 0.752–0.843) despite systematic absolute-temperature differences. Air temperature increased significantly by 0.199 °C decade⁻¹, while population rose from 1.58 to 3.44 million. The findings demonstrate that Jhang’s thermal evolution reflects interacting land-cover, climatic, and demographic pressures rather than urban growth alone.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 11,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Rui Li"
    },
    {
      "name": "Yifei Yuan"
    },
    {
      "name": "Zainab Tahir"
    },
    {
      "name": "Muhammad Haseeb"
    },
    {
      "name": "Syed Amer Mahmoood"
    },
    {
      "name": "Aqil Tariq"
    },
    {
      "name": "Khadeijah Yahya Faqeih"
    },
    {
      "name": "Somayah Moshrif Alamri"
    },
    {
      "name": "Eman Rafi Alamery"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bilal Kemal"
    },
    {
      "name": "Dmitry E. Kucher"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/26axxxqmcb7q5.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1038/s41598-026-75473-5",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "26axxxqmcb7q5",
  "issns": [
    "2045-2322"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-75473-5",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2305|Urban Heat Island Mitigation"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7221689409",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-75473-5_reference.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-13",
  "publisher": "Springer Science and Business Media LLC",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/26axxxqmcb7q5.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:28Z",
      "native_id": "10.1038/s41598-026-75473-5",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-75473-5"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:2305|Urban Heat Island Mitigation",
      "subfield": "environmental-science"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Thirty-five years of urban expansion and thermal transformation: Integrating LULC change climate variability and population growth",
  "title_text": "Thirty-five years of urban expansion and thermal transformation: Integrating LULC change climate variability and population growth",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:28Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/26axxxqmcb7q5",
  "venue": "Scientific Reports",
  "versions": []
}