{
  "abstract": "Callahan and Mankin argue that extreme heat, measured by maximum 5-day average temperature, has a precise and economically meaningful effect on subnational gross domestic product per-capita growth. We reexamine this claim and find that the reported precision does not survive methods that respect the data's spatial and temporal dependence. Country-preserving permutations and postselection correction substantially widen marginal-effect intervals. The estimates are also highly sensitive to influential countries and years, with exclusions sometimes collapsing the effect or reversing its sign. A hierarchical Bayesian model with region-within-country structure and AR(1) year effects yields much larger uncertainty, shrinks the estimated effect by 67 to 90%, and produces credible intervals spanning zero. Last, rolling out-of-sample tests show that adding extreme-climate variables does not improve prediction over models without them. We conclude that the claimed precision is not sustained once dependence, model selection, and influential observations are handled appropriately.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA."
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Abraham J. Wyner",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-9032-9613"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Ryan S. Brill",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-6387-7713"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/28mndm853n5ky.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aeg1967",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "28mndm853n5ky",
  "issns": [
    "2375-2548"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aeg1967",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2307|Climate Change and Health Impacts"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214895814",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-02",
  "publisher": "American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/28mndm853n5ky.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:41Z",
      "native_id": "10.1126/sciadv.aeg1967",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aeg1967"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "openalex:2307|Climate Change and Health Impacts",
      "subfield": "pharmacology-toxicology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Correcting for spatial and temporal dependence in estimating the economic effect of extreme heat",
  "title_text": "Correcting for spatial and temporal dependence in estimating the economic effect of extreme heat",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:41Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/28mndm853n5ky",
  "venue": "Science Advances",
  "versions": []
}