{
  "abstract": "The PLATO mission will observe its first long-pointing field, LOPS2 (Long-duration Observation Phase, South field), for at least two years, bringing the habitable zones (HZ) of its M-dwarf sample within reach of a transit search. The completeness and false-alarm rate of a pipeline validated on TESS M dwarfs are measured on simulated PLATO photometry and converted into a candidate-level forecast for the LOPS2 M dwarfs. Simulated PLATO light curves (717 d baseline; three stellar cells of the faint half of the sample) were processed end to end in two arms, without and with a pre-launch model of the instrument systematics: 930 in the first (465 realisations, 525 injected planets, 465 noise-only twins) and 790 in the second. Injected planets measure completeness against the expected signal-to-noise ratio (S/N), separately for the long-period regime of the HZ; noise-only twins measure the false-alarm rate against the floor on the red-noise-aware statistic S/N_pink. Completeness reaches 50% at S/N = 7.7 +/- 0.15 over all periods and 8.6 +/- 0.3 in the long-period regime. The false-alarm rate falls from 79 +/- 2% to 0.6% as the S/N_pink floor rises from 6 to 8, and 6 +/- 1% at the adopted floor 7.5 (completeness 54 +/- 2%). In the field, the 50 known transiting objects of interest (19 confirmed planets, 31 candidates) would all be recovered; a transiting HZ planet of 1.0 (1.5) Earth radii would be recovered as a candidate with ~40% (65%) probability, giving about 4 HZ Earths and 7 super-Earths over 16 929 field M dwarfs. The systematics arm shifts the 50% point by +0.54 (+0.27/-0.22) in S/N, a penalty localised on the transition, leaving the floor robust and negligible on the long-period injections that feed the HZ. Habitable-zone Earths around the PLATO M dwarfs sit at the measured detection frontier, where completeness and reliability, both measurable before launch, decide the yield.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.04887",
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Yohann Tschudi"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/2cw0whn0nvnv9.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.04887",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "2cw0whn0nvnv9",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04887",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.EP"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.IM"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "3103|Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7211868313",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.04887",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-04",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/2cw0whn0nvnv9.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:19:14Z",
      "native_id": "2609.04887",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04887"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.IM",
      "subfield": "instrumentation-methods"
    },
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.EP",
      "subfield": "planetary"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Habitable-zone Earths at the detection frontier: Measured completeness and false-alarm rate of a transit pipeline for the PLATO M-dwarf sample",
  "title_text": "Habitable-zone Earths at the detection frontier: Measured completeness and false-alarm rate of a transit pipeline for the PLATO M-dwarf sample",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:19:14Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/2cw0whn0nvnv9",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}