{
  "abstract": "Monsoon rainy seasons shape water supply and flood hazard across northern East Asia, but their long-term variability remains poorly understood because few daily rainfall records extend beyond the instrumental era. Here, we reconstruct rainy-season onset, retreat, and duration from a 256-year daily precipitation record for Seoul (1770-2025), providing an unusually long view of seasonal monsoon behavior. The reconstruction reveals structured quasi-decadal to multidecadal variability in rainy-season duration, indicating that recent rainy-season lengthening over northern East Asia is consistent with the latest positive excursion of a recurrent multidecadal modulation rather than a purely isolated modern anomaly. Coupled with warming-associated intensification of extreme rainfall, this prolonged-duration phase has elevated the compound-hazard probability, with recent probability peaks exceeding the long-term mean of ∼25% in Seoul. Exploratory near-term outlooks suggest that rainy-season duration in northern East Asia is likely to remain prolonged toward mid-century, sustaining heightened compound hydroclimatic hazard when seasonally extended overlaps with intensified event-scale rainfall.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China.",
    "Key Laboratory of Planetary Science and Frontier Technology, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China.",
    "School of Space Exploration, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China.",
    "Laboratory for Space Research, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China.",
    "State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric and Environmental Coevolution, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China.",
    "College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China."
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 6,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1
      ],
      "name": "Yuqi Wang",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-7433-9002"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1,
        2
      ],
      "name": "Yong Wei",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-7183-0229"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        3
      ],
      "name": "Zhonghua Yao"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4,
        5
      ],
      "name": "Shiling Yang",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-8103-1276"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4,
        5
      ],
      "name": "Feng Shi",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-3963-1822"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Wei Lin",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-4075-7414"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/2gb5gqh43617e.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aeh6716",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "2gb5gqh43617e",
  "issns": [
    "2375-2548"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aeh6716",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Climate variability and models"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7220838718",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-09",
  "publisher": "American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/2gb5gqh43617e.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:41Z",
      "native_id": "10.1126/sciadv.aeh6716",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aeh6716"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:2306|Climate variability and models",
      "subfield": "climate"
    }
  ],
  "title": "A 256-year daily rainfall record reveals multiscale rainy-season variability and emerging hydroclimatic hazard over northern East Asia",
  "title_text": "A 256-year daily rainfall record reveals multiscale rainy-season variability and emerging hydroclimatic hazard over northern East Asia",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:41Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/2gb5gqh43617e",
  "venue": "Science Advances",
  "versions": []
}