{
  "abstract": "Solar energetic particle (SEP) events, operationally defined as proton flux exceeding 10 pfu in the >10 MeV channel, threaten spacecraft systems, astronaut safety, and high latitude aviation, yet continuous real-time forecasting with adequate lead time remains difficult. We present SEPNET-PRISM-R, a near-real-time system that issues hourly, 24 hour ahead probabilistic SEP forecasts. The model integrates multimodal solar data - including active region patches, flare features, coronal mass ejection (CME) characteristics, and historical proton flux - to concurrently predict SEP occurrences, peak proton flux, soft X-ray flux, and CME velocity, with the primary objective being SEP forecasting. Building on existing literature, SEPNET-PRISM-R enhances operational performance by incorporating a postprocessing module that enables cross-validated decision making and interpretable quantification of feature importance. The training dataset spans from February 1986 to September 2025, with subsequent forecasts generated sequentially through the present via a real-time space weather prediction platform that provides predictive probabilities, feature attributions, and historical analogs, enabling more reliable and informed operational decision-making. The proposed framework substantially suppresses false alarm rates while maintaining robust event detection capabilities, as evidenced by case studies and aggregate statistics.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.28292",
  "author_total": 6,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Yian Yu"
    },
    {
      "name": "Yang Chen"
    },
    {
      "name": "Lulu Zhao"
    },
    {
      "name": "Kathryn Whitman"
    },
    {
      "name": "Ward Manchester"
    },
    {
      "name": "Tamas Gombosi"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/2x4y2g7n5rtyk.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.28292",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "2x4y2g7n5rtyk",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.28292",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC-ND-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC-ND 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.SR"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.space-ph"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.AP"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "3103|Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7223096276",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.28292",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-20",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/2x4y2g7n5rtyk.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:34:04Z",
      "native_id": "2610.28292",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.28292"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.SR",
      "subfield": "stellar"
    },
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.AP",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Real-Time 24-hour Ahead Forecasting of Solar Energetic Particle Events with SEPNET-PRISM-R",
  "title_text": "Real-Time 24-hour Ahead Forecasting of Solar Energetic Particle Events with SEPNET-PRISM-R",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:34:13Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/2x4y2g7n5rtyk",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}