{
  "abstract": "Radial velocity (RV) observations are reaching increasingly high precision, enabling the targeting of low-amplitude signals. Assessing results obtained at the limits of our capabilities requires understanding the relationship between data, models and inference. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) has become an increasingly popular tool for interpretable model criticism in astronomical data analysis. In this work, we demonstrate how LOO-CV can provide insight into the RV analysis of exoplanetary systems through three case studies. We first investigate the anomalously high mass of HD 119130 b inferred from CARMENES RVs, later revised significantly downward after follow-up observations with other instruments. We show that this high mass was strongly driven by two individual measurements, whose removal significantly reduces the tension between data sets. Next, we use LOO-CV as a model selection tool for the GJ 4276 system. Here, LOO-CV prefers an eccentric single-planet model over a two-planet model, and identifies the orbital phases at which follow-up observations would best discriminate between them. Finally, we extend LOO-CV to models with correlated noise, applying it to the GJ 357 system, whose RVs are modeled with a Gaussian process. We find no predictive support for a fourth planetary signal that is moderately favored by the Bayesian evidence, strengthening the interpretation of a three-planet architecture previously reported in the literature. We provide practical guidance for implementing LOO-CV in RV analysis, together with an online tutorial. Such methods will become ever more important as future RV surveys push the limits of planet detection and characterization.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.07181",
  "author_total": 5,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Matthew C. Nixon"
    },
    {
      "name": "Ritvik Basant"
    },
    {
      "name": "Rafael Luque"
    },
    {
      "name": "Luis Welbanks"
    },
    {
      "name": "Pierrot Lamontagne"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/37ygefg947pky.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.07181",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "37ygefg947pky",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.07181",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.EP"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.IM"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.07181",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-05",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/37ygefg947pky.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:27:22Z",
      "native_id": "2610.07181",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.07181"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.IM",
      "subfield": "instrumentation-methods"
    },
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.EP",
      "subfield": "planetary"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Enhancing the Interpretability of Radial Velocity Analysis Using Leave-one-out Cross-validation",
  "title_text": "Enhancing the Interpretability of Radial Velocity Analysis Using Leave-one-out Cross-validation",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:27:22Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/37ygefg947pky",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}