{
  "abstract": "Zoonotic disease emergence at the wildlife–domestic animal–human interface results from a complex interplay of ecological, physiological and anthropogenic factors. Here, we have developed a multi-environment, multi-host compartmental model to identify key drivers of spillover risk across urban, rural and natural environments. The framework incorporates heterogeneous host populations, inter-species contacts and host movement, and includes wildlife chronic stress as one factor influencing susceptibility, transmissibility and recovery. Sensitivity analyses show that domestic animal populations at agricultural interfaces strongly amplify spillover risk through their recovery dynamics and per-contact transmission probabilities, while within-wildlife transmission across environments also shapes system dynamics. Chronic stress effects can further increase spillover risk, and the model indicates that reducing wildlife stress alongside improving domestic animal health and management can markedly lower the likelihood of cross-species transmission. These findings highlight the importance of maintaining ecological conditions that reduce chronic physiological stress in wildlife populations and integrating physiological and ecological data into epidemiological modelling. Such models can inform both bottom-up interventions targeting domestic animals and top-down strategies that sustain resilient wildlife communities and, thereby, mitigate zoonotic spillover.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University 1 , Umeå, Västerbotten County, Sweden",
    "Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology & Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, Mathematics Institute and School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick 3 , Coventry, UK",
    "Interdisciplinary Center for Scientific Computing, Heidelberg University 4 , Heidelberg, Baden-Württemberg, Germany",
    "Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, Umeå University 2 , Umeå, Västerbotten County, Sweden",
    "Complexity Science and Evolution Unit, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University 5 , Onna, Japan",
    "Advancing Systems Analysis Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis 6 , Laxenburg, Austria",
    "Department of Wildlife Diseases, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW) in the Forschungsverbund Berlin e.V. 7 , Berlin, Germany",
    "Department of Veterinary Medicine, Freie Universität Berlin 8 , Berlin, Germany",
    "Norwegian Veterinary Institute 9 , Ås, Norway",
    "Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences - Umea Campus 10 , Umeå, Västerbotten County, Sweden"
  ],
  "article_type": "research article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 7,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1
      ],
      "name": "Erin Stafford",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-8732-298X"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Junwen Guo"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Peter Fransson"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        3,
        4,
        5
      ],
      "name": "Åke Brännström",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-9862-816X"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        6,
        7
      ],
      "name": "Alex D. Greenwood"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        8
      ],
      "name": "Kyrre Kausrud"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        9
      ],
      "name": "Henrik Sjödin"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/39c5gpxmeqvmn.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1098/rsos.260184",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13730646/?tool=EBI",
  "id": "39c5gpxmeqvmn",
  "issns": [
    "2054-5703"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article/13/11/260184/484011/Drivers-of-zoonotic-spillover-at-human-domestic",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "heading",
      "Biomathematics"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Health and Disease and Epidemiology"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Mathematical Modelling"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Mathematics"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Research"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article-pdf/doi/10.1098/rsos.260184/6175250/rsos.260184.pdf",
  "pmcid": "PMC13730646",
  "pmid": "42979395",
  "published": "2026-11-04",
  "publisher": "The Royal Society",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/39c5gpxmeqvmn.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-04T12:20:47Z",
      "native_id": "10.1098/rsos.260184",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article/13/11/260184/484011/Drivers-of-zoonotic-spillover-at-human-domestic"
    },
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-04T15:20:45Z",
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      "source": "europepmc",
      "url": "https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13730646"
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    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-07T12:23:09Z",
      "native_id": "PMC13730646",
      "source": "pmc",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.260184"
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  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "heading:Mathematics",
      "subfield": "general"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Drivers of zoonotic spillover at human–domestic animal–wildlife interfaces: a multi-species model incorporating wildlife chronic stress",
  "title_text": "Drivers of zoonotic spillover at human–domestic animal–wildlife interfaces: a multi-species model incorporating wildlife chronic stress",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-07T12:23:09Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/39c5gpxmeqvmn",
  "venue": "Royal Society Open Science",
  "versions": []
}