{
  "abstract": "Habitat conversion threatens the Greater Kafue Ecosystem (GKE), Zambia, one of southern Africa’s most important protected-area landscapes, yet its spatial predictors remain poorly quantified. We used a Random Forest classifier to map susceptibility to natural-habitat conversion across Kafue National Park (KNP) and its surrounding Game Management Areas (GMAs). The binary response was derived from Landsat classifications for 1984 and 2024, treating natural-to-anthropogenic cover transitions as conversion and fourteen socio-economic, climatic, topographic, proximity, and conservation predictors were evaluated. Because most predictors are contemporary, the model characterises spatial correlates of cumulative conversion rather than temporal drivers. On an independent, spatially blocked test set (n = 1,751), it achieved an accuracy of 0.77, AUC-ROC of 0.83, F1-score of 0.81, and Cohen’s Kappa of 0.53, remaining stable under ten-fold spatial cross-validation (accuracy = 0.84 ± 0.07). A higher false-positive rate (0.34) than false-negative rate (0.14) indicated a precautionary bias suited to screening. Percentage cultivated land was the strongest predictor (mean decrease in impurity = 33.6%; univariate AUC = 0.91). Model-derived cut-points near 10% cultivated cover, 0.036 persons ha⁻¹, 4 km from settlements, and 898 mm rainfall discriminated higher- from lower-susceptibility conditions, though these are screening values, not validated ecological thresholds. Susceptibility mapping identified Bilili, Namwala, and Mumbwa as the principal high-susceptibility GMAs, whereas KNP remained predominantly low. The results support targeted monitoring and conservation prioritisation across the GKE and comparable Miombo landscapes.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "School of Graduate Studies, Copperbelt University",
    "Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, School of Natural Resources, Copperbelt University",
    "Department of Zoology and Aquatic Sciences, School of Natural Resources, Copperbelt University"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 4,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Gift Mulenga"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Darius Phiri"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Matamyo Simwanda"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Vincent R. Nyirenda"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/3cqzx612e4bs6.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1007/s44415-026-00143-3",
  "fulltext_url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s44415-026-00143-3",
  "id": "3cqzx612e4bs6",
  "issns": [
    "3059-2666"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s44415-026-00143-3",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "lcc",
      "GE1-350"
    ],
    [
      "lcc",
      "SD1-669.5"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7222870066",
  "pdf_url": "https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s44415-026-00143-3.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-25",
  "publisher": "Springer Nature",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/3cqzx612e4bs6.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T13:45:33Z",
      "native_id": "33f72b56a13c42578a961f1acc926594",
      "source": "doaj",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s44415-026-00143-3"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:2306|Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management",
      "subfield": "climate"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Drivers of forest loss and habitat degradation in Zambia’s Greater Kafue Ecosystem",
  "title_text": "Drivers of forest loss and habitat degradation in Zambia’s Greater Kafue Ecosystem",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T13:45:33Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/3cqzx612e4bs6",
  "venue": "Discover Forests",
  "versions": []
}