{
  "abstract": "The 2023/24 El Niño strongly reduced land carbon uptake, but the persistence of this anomaly after surface cooling remains uncertain. Here we quantify the July 2024-June 2025 global CO 2 budget using low-latency fossil emission estimates, three DGVMs, machine learning ocean flux emulators and OCO-2-constrained atmospheric inversions. The atmospheric CO 2 growth rate was 2.62 ± 0.08 ppm yr -1 , 6.5% above the 2013-2022 July-to-June mean. DGVMs estimate that the net land sink was 1.32 ± 0.19 GtC yr -1 weaker than the 2015-2022 July-to-June mean, whereas combining bottom-up and top-down constraints gives a smaller deficit of 0.49 GtC yr -1 . The annual anomaly is dominated by late-2024 land carbon losses. Early-2025 recovery, however, is methoddependent: DGVMs retain a weak annual land-sink deficit, while all inversions indicate fluxes close to the reference mean and a stronger-than-normal northern sink in late spring 2025. Ocean uptake shows no global weakening. A statistical decomposition links global land flux variability mainly to temperature, with terrestrial water storage contributing more strongly at regional scales. These results identify Northern Hemisphere land-sink recovery as a central uncertainty in low-latency carbon-budget assessments.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 33,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Piyu Ke"
    },
    {
      "name": "Philippe Ciais"
    },
    {
      "name": "Yitong Yao"
    },
    {
      "name": "Stephen Sitch"
    },
    {
      "name": "Wei Li"
    },
    {
      "name": "Xiaomeng Du"
    },
    {
      "name": "Xiaofan Gui"
    },
    {
      "name": "Ben Poulter"
    },
    {
      "name": "Thomas Colligan"
    },
    {
      "name": "Auke M van der Woude"
    },
    {
      "name": "Joram Hooghiem"
    },
    {
      "name": "Wouter Peters"
    },
    {
      "name": "Zhu Liu"
    },
    {
      "name": "Zhu Deng"
    },
    {
      "name": "Zhe Jin"
    },
    {
      "name": "Xiangjun Tian"
    },
    {
      "name": "Yilong Wang"
    },
    {
      "name": "Junjie Liu"
    },
    {
      "name": "Sudhanshu Pandey"
    },
    {
      "name": "Chris O'Dell"
    },
    {
      "name": "Jiang Bian"
    },
    {
      "name": "John Miller"
    },
    {
      "name": "Xin Lan"
    },
    {
      "name": "Jefferson Goncalves de Souza"
    },
    {
      "name": "Michael O'Sullivan"
    },
    {
      "name": "Pierre Friedlingstein"
    },
    {
      "name": "Julien Alléon"
    },
    {
      "name": "Yi Xi"
    },
    {
      "name": "Daniel S Goll"
    },
    {
      "name": "Lei Zhu"
    },
    {
      "name": "Guido R van der Werf"
    },
    {
      "name": "Shilong Piao"
    },
    {
      "name": "Frédéric Chevallier"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/3fvxa9cxq46yp.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1002/advs.77369",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "3fvxa9cxq46yp",
  "issns": [
    "2198-3844"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://hal.science/hal-05758383v1",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "hal",
      "0.sdu"
    ],
    [
      "hal",
      "1.sdu.envi"
    ],
    [
      "hal",
      "1.sdu.ocean"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7205012896",
  "pdf_url": "https://hal.science/hal-05758383/document",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-01",
  "publisher": "Wiley Open Access",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/3fvxa9cxq46yp.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:37Z",
      "native_id": "hal-05758383",
      "source": "hal",
      "url": "https://hal.science/hal-05758383v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "hal:1.sdu.envi",
      "subfield": "environmental-science"
    },
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "hal:1.sdu.ocean",
      "subfield": "oceanography"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Low Latency Global Carbon Budget Reveals Late 2024 Carbon Losses and Contrasting Early 2025 Land Sink Recovery Signals",
  "title_text": "Low Latency Global Carbon Budget Reveals Late 2024 Carbon Losses and Contrasting Early 2025 Land Sink Recovery Signals",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:37Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/3fvxa9cxq46yp",
  "venue": "Advanced Science",
  "versions": []
}