{
  "abstract": "IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 32.2% to 44.5% (+12.3pp, n=137)\n\nSAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the ACCUMULATION-phase filter to the current 10-trade window would have rejected the 3 open/rejected trades (USDCHF LONG, EURJPY SHORT, AUDUSD LONG) and likely the 3 closed losses (GBPUSD LONG, USDJPY SHORT, AUDUSD SHORT) if they fell outside that phase — but since we lack phase labels per trade, the filter would have removed at least the 3 rejected entries, which are currently unrealized. Among the 7 closed trades, 4 were wins and 3 were losses; if the filter had removed 2 of those 3 losses (plausible given ACCUMULATION bias), win rate would rise from 57% (4/7) to ~80% (4/5) on closed trades. However, it may also have removed 1–2 winners, so net PnL delta is uncertain but likely positive given the backtest's +12.3pp improvement. The key risk is that the 3 rejected trades are still ope\n\nAuthor: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Independent Researcher, United Kingdom"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Andrew Stewart Caldin"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/3pmgzyhbzcjb4.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23587342",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "3pmgzyhbzcjb4",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23587342",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-23",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/3pmgzyhbzcjb4.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-06T12:21:47Z",
      "native_id": "23587342",
      "source": "zenodo",
      "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23587342"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [],
  "title": "LAB #4614 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 32.2% to 44.5% ( — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "title_text": "LAB #4614 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 32.2% to 44.5% ( — E8 Intelligence Research",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-06T12:21:47Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/3pmgzyhbzcjb4",
  "venue": "Zenodo",
  "versions": []
}