{
  "abstract": "Crime remains a persistent socio-economic challenge in South Africa, where the incarceration of petty offenders often exacerbates criminal behaviour. Empirical evidence suggests custodial sentencing for minor offences may accelerate progression to serious crime due to exposure to hardened offenders and criminogenic prison conditions. To investigate this, we develop a compartmental ODE model tracking eight population states: susceptibility, petty and serious crime, custodial and non-custodial sentencing, rehabilitation, and relapse pathways. In particular, the model has an explicit non-custodial sentencing compartment, positioned in a distinct community-supervision stratum that is neither the general community nor the prison system, enabling direct comparison of custodial and non-custodial policy scenarios. The model is parameterised using the South African crime and prison data. Sensitivity analysis shows that sentencing rates, rehabilitation efficacy, and relapse probabilities drive long-term dynamics. Numerical simulations reveal that over-reliance on custodial sentencing perpetuates recidivism and incarceration, while prioritising non-custodial disposals and rehabilitation reduces both ℛ0 and CCR. Findings indicate that indiscriminate incarceration of petty offenders entrenches criminal cycles. Evidence-based interventions focused on rehabilitation and relapse prevention offer durable crime reduction. This quantitative framework evaluates justice policies, highlighting reforms that integrate deterrence with effective rehabilitation.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa"
  ],
  "article_type": "Research Article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Farai Nyabadza"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/3q3yx26wvy6nw.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1371/journal.pone.0356366",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "3q3yx26wvy6nw",
  "issns": [
    "1932-6203"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0356366",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "3312|Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Biology and life sciences/Population biology/Population dynamics"
    ],
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      "plos",
      "/Earth sciences/Atmospheric science/Meteorology/Wind/Tornadoes"
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    [
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      "/Medicine and health sciences/Epidemiology/Medical risk factors"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Medicine and health sciences/Epidemiology/Medical risk factors/Traumatic injury risk factors/Violent crime"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Medicine and health sciences/Public and occupational health/Traumatic injury risk factors/Violent crime"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Physical sciences/Mathematics/Algebra/Linear algebra/Eigenvalues"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Physical sciences/Mathematics/Operator theory"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Social sciences/Law and legal sciences/Criminal justice system/Prisons"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Social sciences/Sociology/Criminology/Crime"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Social sciences/Sociology/Criminology/Crime/Violent crime"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7213416189",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-16",
  "publisher": "Public Library of Science",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/3q3yx26wvy6nw.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:49Z",
      "native_id": "10.1371/journal.pone.0356366",
      "source": "plos",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0356366"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "plos:epidemiology",
      "subfield": "epidemiology-public-health"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Modelling the dark side of prison dynamics: Quantifying the criminogenic effects of petty crime offenders’ incarceration",
  "title_text": "Modelling the dark side of prison dynamics: Quantifying the criminogenic effects of petty crime offenders’ incarceration",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:49Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/3q3yx26wvy6nw",
  "venue": "PLOS One",
  "versions": []
}