{
  "abstract": "Although drought is recognized as one of the major hydroclimatic hazards affecting the Mediterranean Basin, local-scale assessments to support planning for its agricultural, hydrological, and food security impacts remain limited. This study investigates historical and future drought dynamics in Manisa (Western Türkiye) using a multi-scale framework integrating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with CMIP6 climate projections. A comprehensive dataset including ERA5-Land, CHIRPS, TerraClimate, and station observations was evaluated, revealing strong agreement in temperature but higher uncertainty in precipitation. SPI results indicate recurrent short-term droughts with extreme events reaching −2.5 in 2007–2008, alongside intensified long-term hydrological droughts since the early 1990s, while SPEI reveals a stronger temperature-driven drought signal, peaking near −2.0 during 2020–2024 as the most severe cumulative drought period in the past 40 years. Rapid wet–dry transitions have increased since 2000, indicating a more unstable hydroclimatic regime. Future projections (2025–2100) under a high-emission scenario suggest a progressive intensification of thermally driven drought conditions, with SPEI trends declining more steeply than SPI, indicating that evapotranspiration-driven water deficits may increasingly outweigh precipitation deficits as a driver of future drought risk. These findings offer localized, data-driven evidence relevant to climate adaptation and water resource planning in semi-arid Mediterranean agricultural regions.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Climate Change and Zero Waste Department, Manisa Metropolitan Municipality, Manisa 45000, Türkiye",
    "Department of City and Regional Planning, Dokuz Eylül University, Izmir 35210, Türkiye",
    "Department of Civil Engineering, Bingol University, Bingol 12000, Türkiye",
    "Department of Civil Engineering, İstanbul Gelişim University, Istanbul 34315, Türkiye",
    "Department of Geography, Nakhchivan State University, Nakhchivan AZ 7012, Azerbaijan",
    "Geography Department, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Igdir University, Igdir 76000, Türkiye"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 5,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1
      ],
      "name": "Sena Aydemir",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-1649-9574"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Çağlar Hocalar",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-5645-1837"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Kürşat Şekerci",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-9096-4644"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        3
      ],
      "name": "Yasin Paşa",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-2104-9746"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4,
        5
      ],
      "name": "Mehmet Ali Çelik",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-7729-6650"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/41kw6dqe5778k.bib",
  "cited_by": 5,
  "doi": "10.3390/su18168543",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "41kw6dqe5778k",
  "issns": [
    "2071-1050"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.3390/su18168543",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Hydrology and Drought Analysis"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7203831963",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-08-20",
  "publisher": "Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/41kw6dqe5778k.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-04T13:21:18Z",
      "native_id": "W7203831963",
      "source": "openalex",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.3390/su18168543"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:2306|Hydrology and Drought Analysis",
      "subfield": "climate"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Integrating Observational Datasets and CMIP6 Projections for Multi-Scale Drought Characterization: Evidence from Western Türkiye",
  "title_text": "Integrating Observational Datasets and CMIP6 Projections for Multi-Scale Drought Characterization: Evidence from Western Türkiye",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-07T13:21:03Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/41kw6dqe5778k",
  "venue": "Sustainability",
  "versions": []
}