{
  "abstract": "Climate change is intensifying drought vulnerability in northern Ghana, posing serious risks to crop production, food security, and rural livelihoods in semi-arid regions. This study develops an empirical modelling framework to assess drought vulnerability and impacts at three temporal horizons, 2026–2050, 2051–2075, and 2076–2100, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. We integrated bias-corrected outputs from five CMIP6 models, MRI-ESM2–0, EC-Earth3, IPSL-CM6A-LR, CESM2, and HadGEM3-GC31-LL, downscaled to 0.25° resolution, with drought indices including the Standardized Precipitation Index SPI, Reconnaissance Drought Index RDI, Normalized Difference Drought Index NDDI, and Soil Moisture Index SMI. These were combined with MODIS-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI, population density, and land use/land cover using GIS-based tools to generate composite drought vulnerability maps. CMIP6 models were validated against reference datasets and showed strong performance for annual precipitation, r = 0.95, RMSE = 3.4 mm, and temperature, r = 0.99, RMSE = 0.47–0.74°C. Results project increasing drought severity, with mean temperature rises of 2.0–3.9°C and rainfall declines up to 19% by 2100. Crop yields for maize, millet, sorghum, and groundnuts are expected to fall by 25–60% by 2050, with maize showing the strongest negative correlation to drought severity, r = –0.72, p < 0.01, confirmed by Mann-Kendall trends at the 95% confidence level. About 84% of the study area is classified as highly vulnerable due to limited adaptive capacity, over 80% dependence on rain-fed agriculture, more than 49% household food insecurity, less than 23% cropland use, and under 5% water body coverage. Significant uncertainties remain in precipitation projections, with some models showing divergent temperature trends, highlighting challenges in modelling climate impacts. The findings underscore the urgent need for district-level drought preparedness, solar-powered irrigation, index insurance, climate-smart agriculture, and Disaster Risk Reduction aligned with UNDRR and Sendai Framework priorities to build resilience in northern Ghana.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Department of Agricultural Engineering, School of Engineering Sciences, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana",
    "Department of Irrigation Technology and Innovations, Ghana Irrigation Development Authority (ITID-GIDA), Accra, Ghana"
  ],
  "article_type": "Research Article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Theophilus Francis Kofitio"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Peace Korshiwor Amoatey"
    },
    {
      "name": "Evans Asenso"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/45nyehpwy05hs.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1371/journal.pclm.0001038",
  "fulltext_url": "https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0001038",
  "id": "45nyehpwy05hs",
  "issns": [
    "2767-3200"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0001038",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Hydrology and Drought Analysis"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Biology and life sciences/Agriculture"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Biology and life sciences/Agriculture/Agricultural methods/Agricultural irrigation"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Biology and life sciences/Agriculture/Crop science/Crops"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Earth sciences/Atmospheric science/Climatology/Climate change"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Earth sciences/Atmospheric science/Meteorology/Rain"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Earth sciences/Seasons"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Ecology and environmental sciences/Drought"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/People and places/Geographical locations/Africa/Ghana"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214399028",
  "pdf_url": "https://journals.plos.org/climate/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0001038&type=printable",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-25",
  "publisher": "Public Library of Science",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/45nyehpwy05hs.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:43Z",
      "native_id": "10.1371/journal.pclm.0001038",
      "source": "plos",
      "url": "https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0001038"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "plos:meteorology",
      "subfield": "atmospheric"
    },
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "plos:climate change",
      "subfield": "climate"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Drought vulnerability assessment and its severe impact on crop production and livelihood of people: An empirical modelling of northern Ghana",
  "title_text": "Drought vulnerability assessment and its severe impact on crop production and livelihood of people: An empirical modelling of northern Ghana",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:43Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/45nyehpwy05hs",
  "venue": "PLOS Climate",
  "versions": []
}