{
  "abstract": "Thermospheric mass density controls satellite drag but is observed directly by few missions, and the leading operational product (HASDM) relies on non-public radar data. We present the Neural Density Model (NDM), a 3D density reanalysis for October 2003--October 2026 at 250--800~km. Previous approaches either convert the orbital decay of tracked objects into point densities or correct empirical models with a few global scale factors. NDM instead fits a spatially resolved neural correction to NRLMSISE-00 directly to the observed decay of 600--800 objects per year, through a differentiable drag operator, jointly with their ballistic coefficients, calibration spheres and accelerometer densities. On withheld satellites the median error is 0.078 (natural-log units), against 0.101 for HASDM and 0.310 for NRLMSISE-00; NDM has the smaller bias, HASDM slightly smaller scatter. On Spire GNSS orbits, never used in training, NDM and HASDM perform comparably. NDM uses only public observations.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2611.02103",
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Enrico Camporeale"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/46e7aykg7yz6e.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2611.02103",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "46e7aykg7yz6e",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.02103",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.data-an"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.space-ph"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2611.02103",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-11-01",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/46e7aykg7yz6e.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-03T12:20:59Z",
      "native_id": "2611.02103",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.02103"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:physics.space-ph",
      "subfield": "stellar"
    },
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:physics.data-an",
      "subfield": "computational"
    }
  ],
  "title": "The Neural Density Model: An Open 3D Thermospheric Density Reanalysis for 2003--2026 From Tracked Space Debris",
  "title_text": "The Neural Density Model: An Open 3D Thermospheric Density Reanalysis for 2003--2026 From Tracked Space Debris",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-05T15:20:18Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/46e7aykg7yz6e",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}