{
  "abstract": "We propose a stochastic epidemic model to describe the spread of avian influenza in a network of poultry farms. We consider three main paths of infection transmission between poultry farms: from nearby farms, mainly through airborne diffusion; from farms belonging to the same company, through shared veterinarians, forage providers and similar; from undetected small farms or wildlife. From the parameter estimation, based on a modified Expectation-Maximization algorithm, we infer that approximately 63% of the farms were infected from nearby ones, with an infection force declining with distance; of these, more than one third belonged to the same company of the estimated infector. About 20% were infected from premises belonging to the same company but farther away than the distance threshold of 2 km; the remaining ones from wildlife or unidentified sources. These estimates have been validated by a comparison with genetic data, available for a subset of the farms: the genetic distance between two farms identified, with high probability, as an infector-infectee pair is much lower than between random pairs. These results may help in the implementation of tailored prevention and control measures for future outbreaks.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "University of Trento"
  ],
  "article_type": "New results",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 6,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "M. Sensi"
    },
    {
      "name": "S. Sottile"
    },
    {
      "name": "D. Fornasiero"
    },
    {
      "name": "I. Monne"
    },
    {
      "name": "P. Mulatti"
    },
    {
      "name": "A. Pugliese"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/46gxzybr86fq5.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.64898/2026.09.19.752832",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.19.752832v1.full",
  "id": "46gxzybr86fq5",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.19.752832v1",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "biorxiv",
      "genetics"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2713|Influenza Virus Research Studies"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7214398891",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.19.752832v1.full.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-19",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/46gxzybr86fq5.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:24:28Z",
      "native_id": "10.64898/2026.09.19.752832",
      "source": "biorxiv",
      "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.19.752832v1"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "biorxiv:genetics",
      "subfield": "genetics-genomics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Modelling assessment of the different paths of between-farm transmission of avian influenza HPAI in Northern Italy in 2021--2022",
  "title_text": "Modelling assessment of the different paths of between-farm transmission of avian influenza HPAI in Northern Italy in 2021--2022",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:24:28Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/46gxzybr86fq5",
  "venue": "bioRxiv",
  "versions": []
}