{
  "abstract": "Strong gravitational lensing is sensitive to the abundance and internal structure of dark matter halos, providing a probe of gravothermal evolution in self-interacting dark matter (SIDM). We combine semi-analytic cold dark matter (CDM) subhalo histories with a model for gravothermal evolution in SIDM to generate CDM and SIDM subhalo populations across SIDM parameter space. We predict their projected enclosed masses and deflection-based projected density slopes and compare them with three perturbers inferred through gravitational imaging in PJ011646, SDSS J0946+1006, and JVAS B1938+666. For SIDM model parameters $σ_0/m_χ=147.1$ cm$^2$/g and $w=120$ km/s, SIDM subhalos reproduce all three perturbers more often than CDM subhalos. For PJ011646, we find ~0.6 cored SIDM subhalos per host matching the perturber, compared with ~0.002 in CDM, while core-collapsed subhalos are too steep. For SDSS J0946+1006, we find ~3 core-collapsed and ~0.004 cored SIDM subhalos per host, compared with none in 900 CDM realizations, although baryons, neglected here, may matter for such massive subhalos. For \"detection V\" in JVAS B1938+666, we find ~220 core-collapsed and ~20 cored SIDM subhalos per host within the $2σ$ posterior region, compared with ~0.2 in CDM; the CDM candidates require exceptionally early accretion, at median redshift $z\\sim13$. Simultaneously reproducing all three perturbers requires $w\\gtrsim10^2$ km/s, so that the massive (~$5.6\\times10^{10}M_\\odot$) progenitors of SDSS J0946+1006 candidates can collapse, and is achieved for $σ_0/m_χ\\gtrsim10^2$ cm$^2$/g in the parameter sets studied. Our results show how semi-analytic models can quantify how often subhalos reproduce individual perturbers in different dark matter models, and our modular framework can be readily updated as models of tidal stripping and late-stage gravothermal evolution in SIDM improve. (abridged)",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2610.31881",
  "author_total": 5,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Jonathan Tekverk"
    },
    {
      "name": "Duncan K. Adams"
    },
    {
      "name": "Simon Birrer"
    },
    {
      "name": "Rouven Essig"
    },
    {
      "name": "Daniel Gilman"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/49b25y3e205tb.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2610.31881",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "49b25y3e205tb",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.31881",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.CO"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "hep-ph"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "3103|Galaxies: Formation, Evolution, Phenomena"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7223706624",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.31881",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-22",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/49b25y3e205tb.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:35:15Z",
      "native_id": "2610.31881",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.31881"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.CO",
      "subfield": "cosmology"
    },
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:hep-ph",
      "subfield": "high-energy"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Semi-Analytic Predictions for Strong-Lensing Perturbers in Cold and Self-Interacting Dark Matter",
  "title_text": "Semi-Analytic Predictions for Strong-Lensing Perturbers in Cold and Self-Interacting Dark Matter",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:35:15Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/49b25y3e205tb",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}