{
  "abstract": "We study poverty minimization via direct transfers, framing this as a statistical learning problem while retaining the information constraints faced by real-world programs. Using nationally representative household consumption surveys from 34 countries that together account for 76% of the world's poor, we estimate that reducing the poverty rate to 1% (from a baseline of 13%) would cost $211 B nominal per year. This is 4.0 times the corresponding reduction in the aggregate poverty gap, but only 19% of the cost of universal basic income. Extrapolated globally, the results imply a cost of 0.28% of global GDP to (approximately) end extreme poverty.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.02013",
  "author_total": 5,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Roshni Sahoo"
    },
    {
      "name": "Joshua Blumenstock"
    },
    {
      "name": "Paul Niehaus"
    },
    {
      "name": "Leo Selker"
    },
    {
      "name": "Stefan Wager"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4dyfdnmcjmt4j.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.02013",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "4dyfdnmcjmt4j",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02013",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "econ.GN"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "q-fin.EC"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.ML"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.02013",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-02",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4dyfdnmcjmt4j.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:18:26Z",
      "native_id": "2609.02013",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02013"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.ML",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "What Would it Cost to End Extreme Poverty?",
  "title_text": "What Would it Cost to End Extreme Poverty?",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:18:26Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4dyfdnmcjmt4j",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}