{
  "abstract": "The risk of a ‘Hothouse Earth’ trajectory has become increasingly prominent in debates about Earth system stability and climate overshoot. Existing analyses primarily focus on biophysical feedbacks that may amplify warming beyond direct anthropogenic forcing. We argue the concept has not previously incorporated how social destabilisation lowers the effective threshold at which biophysical tipping dynamics become self-sustaining, independently of further anthropogenic forcing and so undermines the capacity for planetary stewardship. We define ‘derailment risk’ as the possibility that escalating Earth system disruption weakens the social, political, and economic conditions required to sustain mitigation, adaptation, and ecological restoration. Such risks emerge when climate impacts contribute to a wide range of challenges, including debt crises, institutional erosion, political fragmentation, supply-chain instability, and declining public support for environmental action. These reinforcing feedbacks may reduce humanity’s capacity to respond even before biophysical tipping thresholds are crossed. We therefore extend the Hothouse Earth framework by incorporating social dynamics into the Earth system stability landscape. We propose a three-stage framework for assessing and managing derailment risks: conceptual mapping of socio-biophysical feedbacks; anticipatory resilience-building interventions; responsive governance strategies for periods of escalating instability. We conclude that planetary stewardship should prioritise maintaining and expanding collective agency under worsening Earth system stress.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter",
    "Strategic Climate Risk Initiative"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "James G Dyke",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-6779-1682"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1
      ],
      "name": "Laurie Laybourn",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-6605-0794"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Jesse F Abrams",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-0411-8519"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4emhh3rppfc1a.bib",
  "cited_by": 1,
  "doi": "10.1088/1748-9326/aeb1de",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "4emhh3rppfc1a",
  "issns": [
    "1748-9326"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb1de",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "feed-journal",
      "earth/environmental-science"
    ]
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  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb1de/pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-11-06",
  "publisher": "IOP Publishing",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4emhh3rppfc1a.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-06T06:20:05Z",
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      "url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb1de"
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    {
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      "url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb1de"
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  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "feed-journal:earth/environmental-science",
      "subfield": "environmental-science"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Manage derailment risks to avoid Hothouse Earth",
  "title_text": "Manage derailment risks to avoid Hothouse Earth",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-08T00:23:14Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4emhh3rppfc1a",
  "venue": "Environmental Research Letters",
  "versions": []
}