{
  "abstract": "As a native perennial tree, Pinus tabuliformis Carrière (PT) has been widely planted on the Chinese Loess Plateau for ecological restoration. However, the impacts of climate-change on water resources pose a new challenge to the sustainability of restored ecosystems. To clarify the plantation carbon sequestration and water consumption, as well as their underlying physiological mechanisms, this study coupled the integrated BBGC-Sperry model with CMIP6 meteorological data under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5. Daily transpiration, soil water content, and leaf water potential, along with multi-site total growing-season transpiration and aboveground biomass data, were used to validate the BBGC-Sperry model. The validated model was used to simulate the dynamics of annual mean NPP, annual mean actual evapotranspiration (ET) and annual average percentage loss of whole-plant hydraulic conductance (APLK) for PT plantations at 130 meteorological stations on the Loess Plateau. We integrated a “carbon-water-hydraulic risk index” (CWHRI) based on NPP, ET, and drought-induced mortality risk probability (DMRP) to assess ecosystem sustainability. These simulations covered the baseline period (2000–2024) and three future periods (2025–2049, NFP; 2050–2074, MFP; and 2075–2099, FFP) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5). The results indicate that compared with the baseline period, the annual mean NPP is projected to decrease by 4 %–27 % under all scenario–period combinations, except for the FFP under SSP5–8.5, where it will increase by 8 %. Annual mean ET and APLK are projected to increase from 0.05 %–61 % and 13 %–84 %, respectively, with the smallest increases under SSP1–2.6 with the NFP and the largest under SSP5–8.5 with the FFP. The CWHRI is projected to decline by 23 %–44 %, and exhibit a southeast-to-northwest decreasing gradient, which is dominated by NPP, with a secondary contribution from water-related environmental factors. These findings indicate the rising DMRP of PT plantations will threaten the sustainability of restored ecosystems on the Loess Plateau in the future.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Northwest A&F University (Yangling, China)"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 7,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Tianqi Guo"
    },
    {
      "name": "Zhongdian Zhang"
    },
    {
      "name": "Rui Liu"
    },
    {
      "name": "Xiaofei Wu"
    },
    {
      "name": "Xinmei Liu"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Chenyi Ju"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Mingbin Huang",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-9792-3124"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4jmz9e2pxb1we.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.5194/bg-23-7871-2026",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "4jmz9e2pxb1we",
  "issns": [
    "1726-4189"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/7871/2026/",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-11-05",
  "publisher": "Copernicus GmbH",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4jmz9e2pxb1we.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-05T12:21:39Z",
      "native_id": "10.5194/bg-23-7871-2026",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/7871/2026/"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "issn:1726-4189",
      "subfield": "geology-geochemistry"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Spatiotemporal variations of carbon-water-hydraulic risk for Pinus tabuliformis Carrière Plantations on the Loess Plateau under future climate change",
  "title_text": "Spatiotemporal variations of carbon-water-hydraulic risk for Pinus tabuliformis Carrière Plantations on the Loess Plateau under future climate change",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-07T00:21:30Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4jmz9e2pxb1we",
  "venue": "Biogeosciences",
  "versions": [
    {
      "doi": "10.5194/egusphere-2026-3094",
      "pid": null,
      "relation": "preprint",
      "title": null,
      "venue": null
    }
  ]
}