{
  "abstract": "Until 2020, two lineages of the influenza B virus had co-circulated globally. Measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic led to a near-absence of influenza infections. While B/Victoria reemerged in late 2021, there have been no reports of B/Yamagata since the pandemic. To investigate which epidemiological and immunological factors were primarily responsible for the extinction of B/Yamagata, we developed a global model for the two influenza B lineages. To mimic the transmission impacts of the pandemic, we implemented a transient reduction in contacts and identified parameter values that recapitulated viral coexistence dynamic before the pandemic and the qualitative post-pandemic outcomes of B/Victoria (reemergence in late 2021) and B/Yamagata (extinction). Our results suggest that, rather than immunological or evolutionary mechanisms, the extinction of B/Yamagata was mainly driven by its lower basic reproduction number making the virus particularly vulnerable during the early phase of the pandemic. Stochastic simulations of our best-fitting model suggest that B/Victoria was also close to extinction during this period. We investigate the model to assess the feasibility of B/Victoria eradication through vaccination and the potential for a sustained re-emergence of B/Yamagata in the 2026-27 flu season, thus highlighting important considerations for biosafety.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "University of Georgia"
  ],
  "article_type": "PUBLISHAHEADOFPRINT",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "M. A. Gutierrez"
    },
    {
      "name": "P. A. Rohani"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4mp66yyts5xgw.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.64898/2026.07.22.26358639",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.07.22.26358639v3.full",
  "id": "4mp66yyts5xgw",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.07.22.26358639v3",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "medrxiv",
      "epidemiology"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2713|Influenza Virus Research Studies"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7170134706",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.07.22.26358639v3.full.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-07-22",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4mp66yyts5xgw.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-07T00:20:58Z",
      "native_id": "10.64898/2026.07.22.26358639",
      "source": "medrxiv",
      "url": "https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.07.22.26358639v3"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "medrxiv:epidemiology",
      "subfield": "epidemiology-public-health"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Identifying the viral and epidemiological factors behind the apparent global extinction of influenza B/Yamagata",
  "title_text": "Identifying the viral and epidemiological factors behind the apparent global extinction of influenza B/Yamagata",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-08T00:21:01Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4mp66yyts5xgw",
  "venue": "medRxiv",
  "versions": []
}