{
  "abstract": "We compute the commutator of a scalar field minimally coupled to gravity at leading order in $G_N$. The commutator is operator-valued, with terms involving derivatives of Dirac deltas supported on the Minkowski light cone. When evaluated on classical/coherent graviton states, these terms ``bend\" the support of the commutator in precisely the way required to recover standard causality on a classical curved spacetime. However, these terms are also associated with a variance and are thus a source of uncertainty in the causal relations between events. We quantify this effect for a thermal state of gravitons at temperature $T$. In the large-time limit, the uncertainty of the lightcone position is given by $$ \\text{Var}(δx) =\\frac{4G_NTt}{3}\\, , $$ where $δx$ is the displacement from the classical lightcone at $|\\vec x| = t$. We obtain this result by subtracting a universal vacuum contribution that is logarithmically UV divergent and subleading at late times.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2606.02729",
  "author_total": 3,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Giordano Cintia"
    },
    {
      "name": "Federico Piazza"
    },
    {
      "name": "Samuel Ramos"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4ps0d0gn7ysfa.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2606.02729",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "4ps0d0gn7ysfa",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.02729",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.CO"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "gr-qc"
    ],
    [
      "arxiv",
      "hep-th"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "3109|Noncommutative and Quantum Gravity Theories"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7163415824",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.02729",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-28",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4ps0d0gn7ysfa.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:25:31Z",
      "native_id": "2606.02729",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.02729"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.CO",
      "subfield": "cosmology"
    },
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:gr-qc",
      "subfield": "gravitation"
    },
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:hep-th",
      "subfield": "high-energy"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Probabilistic Causality from Graviton Fluctuations",
  "title_text": "Probabilistic Causality from Graviton Fluctuations",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:25:31Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4ps0d0gn7ysfa",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}