{
  "abstract": "We present PepC-Global, a global version of the Princeton environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone (PepC) framework that uniquely implements basin-wise tuning within a single unified tropical cyclone climatology model. PepC-Global represents tropical cyclone climatology as a coupled stochastic process linking genesis, track, and intensity conditioned on large-scale environmental predictors. Each of the genesis, track, and intensity modules outperforms widely used linear models in out-of-sample tests. The intensity module also incorporates an environment-dependent over-land decay model, offering greater sensitivity to climate change signals than conventional fixed decay rate approaches. Systematic evaluation against observations demonstrates that PepC-Global closely reproduces genesis basin-wise frequency, seasonal cycles, interannual variability, and spatial distributions. The model also accurately captures basin-wise track patterns, along-coastline landfall frequency, and intensity statistics including lifetime maximum intensity and landfall intensity distributions. PepC-Global provides a versatile tool for probabilistic tropical cyclone hazard and risk assessment and a practical framework for investigating changes in tropical cyclone activity across future climate scenarios.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.14259",
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Cong Gao"
    },
    {
      "name": "Ning Lin"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4qc1aykft63ks.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.14259",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "4qc1aykft63ks",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.14259",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "physics.ao-ph"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "1902|Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7213261002",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.14259",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-12",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4qc1aykft63ks.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:29:06Z",
      "native_id": "2609.14259",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.14259"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "arxiv:physics.ao-ph",
      "subfield": "atmospheric"
    }
  ],
  "title": "PepC-Global: A Basin-Tuned Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Model with Enhanced Out-of-Sample Skill and Climate-Sensitive Over-Land Decay",
  "title_text": "PepC-Global: A Basin-Tuned Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Model with Enhanced Out-of-Sample Skill and Climate-Sensitive Over-Land Decay",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:29:06Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4qc1aykft63ks",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}