{
  "abstract": "Radial velocity (RV) observations are reaching increasingly high precision, enabling the targeting of low-amplitude signals. Assessing results obtained at the limits of our capabilities requires understanding the relationship between data, models and inference. Leave-one-out cross validation (LOO-CV) has become an increasingly popular tool for interpretable model criticism in astronomical data analysis. In this work, we demonstrate how LOO-CV can provide insight into the RV analysis of exoplanetary systems through three case studies. We first investigate the anomalously high mass of HD 119130 b inferred from CARMENES RVs, later revised significantly downward after follow-up observations with other instruments. We show that this high mass was strongly driven by two individual measurements, whose removal significantly reduces the tension between data sets. Next, we use LOO-CV as a model selection tool for the GJ 4276 system. Here, LOO-CV prefers an eccentric single-planet model over a two-planet model, and identifies the orbital phases at which follow-up observations would best discriminate between them. Finally, we extend LOO-CV to models with correlated noise, applying it to the GJ 357 system, whose RVs are modeled with a Gaussian process. We find no predictive support for a fourth planetary signal that is moderately favored by the Bayesian evidence, strengthening the interpretation of a three-planet architecture previously reported in the literature. We provide practical guidance for implementing LOO-CV in RV analysis, together with an online tutorial. Such methods will become ever more important as future RV surveys push the limits of planet detection and characterization.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Arizona State University",
    "University of Chicago",
    "Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (IAA-CSIC)"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 5,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Matthew C. Nixon",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-8236-5553"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Ritvik Basant",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-4508-2436"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1,
        2
      ],
      "name": "Rafael Luque",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-4671-2957"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Luis Welbanks",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-0156-4564"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Pierrot Lamontagne",
      "orcid": "0009-0003-2535-5641"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4qvfrw83hsfhf.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.3847/1538-3881/aeb013",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "4qvfrw83hsfhf",
  "issns": [
    "0004-6256",
    "1538-3881"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-3881/aeb013",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "3103|Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7221032944",
  "pdf_url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-3881/aeb013/pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-28",
  "publisher": "American Astronomical Society",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4qvfrw83hsfhf.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:18:14Z",
      "native_id": "10.3847/1538-3881/aeb013",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-3881/aeb013"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "openalex:3103|Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies",
      "subfield": "stellar"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Enhancing the Interpretability of Radial Velocity Analysis Using Leave-one-out Cross Validation",
  "title_text": "Enhancing the Interpretability of Radial Velocity Analysis Using Leave-one-out Cross Validation",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:18:14Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4qvfrw83hsfhf",
  "venue": "The Astronomical Journal",
  "versions": []
}