{
  "abstract": "Extreme sea levels (ESLs) threaten coastal zones, and global assessments suggest that future ESLs grow with rising mean sea level (MSL) as the main driver. Conventional practice assumes that present-day return levels are added to a given MSL trajectory into the future to obtain future return levels. Here, we test this additive assumption and show that it may under- or overestimate ESLs with consequences for coastal protection decisions. We fit stationary and non-stationary generalised extreme value (GEV) models to annual maxima of long hourly tide-gauge records. The non-stationary GEV location parameter may depend on MSL, time, or both. Bayesian model comparison and posterior coefficient support classify 200 of the 386 analysed series (52%) as non-stationary and 186 as stationary. At some stations, ESLs increase more than MSL; at others they increase less than MSL or even decrease. Post-fit grouping by seabed depth and slope also suggests stronger morphology-related differences in the fitted MSL coefficient among non-stationary series than among the stationary comparison series.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 8,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Peter Thejll"
    },
    {
      "name": "Martin Drews"
    },
    {
      "name": "Torben Schmith"
    },
    {
      "name": "Jacob Woge Nielsen"
    },
    {
      "name": "Mads Hvid Ribergaard"
    },
    {
      "name": "Peter Guttorp"
    },
    {
      "name": "Thordis Thorarinsdottir"
    },
    {
      "name": "Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4y45hagkvt32z.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1038/s41598-026-77204-2",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "4y45hagkvt32z",
  "issns": [
    "2045-2322"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-77204-2",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "1904|Coastal and Marine Dynamics"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7223354587",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-77204-2_reference.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-23",
  "publisher": "Springer Science and Business Media LLC",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4y45hagkvt32z.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:33Z",
      "native_id": "10.1038/s41598-026-77204-2",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-77204-2"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:1904|Coastal and Marine Dynamics",
      "subfield": "geology-geochemistry"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Risk of biases in estimating storm surge extremes: a global study",
  "title_text": "Risk of biases in estimating storm surge extremes: a global study",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:33Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/4y45hagkvt32z",
  "venue": "Scientific Reports",
  "versions": []
}