{
  "abstract": "A zero-leakage prospective holdout. Trained on 1,424 figures born before 1800 with only birth-fixed features (sex, civilisation, domain, innate g, neurotype posterior P_ND); predicted the 2,513 figures born 1800-1950 (n=5,350; 425 positive; bootstrap 95% CIs). For posthumous textbook eminence, T0 AUC=0.577 (.550-.606), +g=0.556, +P_ND=0.558; the independent net contribution of P_ND was Delta AUC=+0.0025 (random-label control 0.485; halo room 0.009). For contemporaneous top achievement, adding g raised AUC from 0.558 to 0.818 while P_ND again added ~0 (Delta AUC=-0.0043). Rolling cutoffs (1600/1700/1800/1850) converged to 0.56-0.58 as samples grew; administrative/inherited-power domain g-only AUC=0.357 (below chance, separate logic). The 0.82-vs-0.57 gap is variance absent from birth-fixed models (period, recording technology, politics, network amplification, luck, symbolic need). The null falsifies a trait-to-eminence/destiny narrative and relocates explanation to intervene-able post-birth processes (harness); residual full-biography halo, right censoring, and domain pooling are stated. Short report; labels are most-plausible hypotheses, not diagnoses.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Polytechnic Institute, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Xin Xu"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/516asmcx8xf35.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23586779",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "516asmcx8xf35",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23586779",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://zenodo.org/api/records/23586779/files/P11_cross_era_holdout_negative_result.pdf/content",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-24",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/516asmcx8xf35.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-07T12:20:53Z",
      "native_id": "23586779",
      "source": "zenodo",
      "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23586779"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [],
  "title": "Achievement is predictable, historical memory is almost not: a zero-leakage cross-era holdout on 5,350 eminent figures falsifies the innate-trait theory of greatness",
  "title_text": "Achievement is predictable, historical memory is almost not: a zero-leakage cross-era holdout on 5,350 eminent figures falsifies the innate-trait theory of greatness",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-07T12:20:53Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/516asmcx8xf35",
  "venue": "Zenodo",
  "versions": []
}