{
  "abstract": "Climate-induced permafrost thaw unlocks large stores of organic carbon that are mineralized and emitted as carbon dioxide (CO2) from rivers to the atmosphere1. Concurrently, warming and permafrost thaw can increase mineral weathering rates, thus affecting the release and sequestration of inorganic carbon2–4. Yet how these biological and geological carbon cycles interact and jointly affect CO2 dynamics (emission compared with drawdown) in permafrost rivers remains unknown5. Here we combine CO2 emissions, organic and inorganic solute concentrations, dual carbon isotopes (δ13C–Δ14C) and geochemical modelling to infer how permafrost thaw may affect river biogeochemistry over decades to centuries across the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Leveraging a gradient of thermal permafrost degradation, we find that river CO2 emissions decline, whereas solute fluxes from rock weathering increase with decreasing permafrost cover. Across this region, net CO2 drawdown fluxes from rock weathering are about 35% of river CO2 emissions, varying from around 15% in catchments with continuous permafrost to more than 100% in catchments with discontinuous or isolated permafrost. Thus, carbon fluxes from chemical weathering may become increasingly important with ongoing permafrost thaw, potentially even outpacing river CO2 emissions. Our findings disentangle the interplay between biological and geological carbon fluxes that are important for the cryosphere and the global carbon cycle. Permafrost thaw on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau increases rock-weathering rates while reducing river CO2 emissions, suggesting geological carbon fluxes may eventually outpace thaw-driven emissions.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China",
    "Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education and State Key Laboratory of Wetland Conservation and Restoration, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China",
    "State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China",
    "Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany",
    "School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK",
    "Climate Impacts Research Centre, Department of Ecology, Environment and Geoscience, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden",
    "Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA",
    "School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA",
    "Beijing Key Laboratory of Biological Big Data and Topological Statistics, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China",
    "State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. jzding@itpcas.ac.cn",
    "Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education and State Key Laboratory of Wetland Conservation and Restoration, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China. xiaxh@bnu.edu.cn",
    "River Ecosystems Laboratory, Alpine and Polar Environmental Research Center, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 14,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1,
        2
      ],
      "name": "Liwei Zhang",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-1610-2816"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        3
      ],
      "name": "Aaron Bufe",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-8551-7265"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4
      ],
      "name": "Joshua F. Dean",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-9058-7076"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5
      ],
      "name": "Gerard Rocher‐Ros",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-7853-2531"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5
      ],
      "name": "Ryan Allen Sponseller",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-5758-2705"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        6
      ],
      "name": "Emily H. Stanley",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-4922-8121"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5
      ],
      "name": "Jan Karlsson",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-5730-0694"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        7
      ],
      "name": "David Butman",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-3520-7426"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        8
      ],
      "name": "Ran Liu"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Lijun Hou",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-5001-1707"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        9
      ],
      "name": "Jinzhi Ding",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-3664-2702"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Shilong L. Piao",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-8057-2292"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        10
      ],
      "name": "Xinghui Xia",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-8663-6346"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        11
      ],
      "name": "Tom J. Battin",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-5361-2033"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/51m231rnq6x97.bib",
  "cited_by": 5,
  "doi": "10.1038/s41586-026-10664-8",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "51m231rnq6x97",
  "issns": [
    "0028-0836",
    "1476-4687"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10664-8",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC-ND",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "1902|Climate change and permafrost"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7165060351",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": "PMC13322975",
  "pmid": "42310459",
  "published": "2026-06-17",
  "publisher": "Nature Portfolio",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/51m231rnq6x97.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-03T13:20:38Z",
      "native_id": "W7165060351",
      "source": "openalex",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10664-8"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:1902|Climate change and permafrost",
      "subfield": "climate"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Rock weathering can counteract river CO2 emissions induced by permafrost thaw",
  "title_text": "Rock weathering can counteract river CO2 emissions induced by permafrost thaw",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-09T13:21:19Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/51m231rnq6x97",
  "venue": "Nature",
  "versions": []
}