{
  "abstract": "本研究以设计科学研究(DSR)范式构建一个多智能体知识系统,对公元前2000年至今的5,631张历史人物卡(5,549位严格真人)执行可证伪的回溯神经类型(ADHD/ASD/AuDHD)概率归因。系统包含六维操作化编码手册、贝叶斯后验、基于度的配置模型同配检验、外部金标准聚合/区分效度与跨时代零泄漏 holdout。核心结果:身份认同欣赏链存在显著同配(3,334边,z=10.78),而制度师承与职业引用不显著;237个外部锚点上P_ND呈连续差异但高阈值组别无显著分类。最关键的是跨时代 holdout(cut=1800,n=5,350):先天神经类型 P_ND 对后世教科书声望无独立预测力(AUC 增量约0.0025,近于随机标签0.485),先天智力g预测当身成就(AUC 0.82)但不预测后世声望(0.57)。系统据此诚实输出阴性结果,把研究落点从'天才血统'转向'可干预的自我管理系统(harness)'。全部历史人物结论为基于公开材料的最可能假设,非临床诊断,遵守 Goldwater Rule。本稿同时为 MEM 学位论文主体,中文,投国内 CSSCI 前谨慎公开预印本。",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Polytechnic Institute, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Xin Xu"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/51z0hspsa82br.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23586727",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "51z0hspsa82br",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23586727",
  "language": "zho",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://zenodo.org/api/records/23586727/files/P09a_info_system_DSR_chinese.pdf/content",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-24",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/51z0hspsa82br.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-07T12:20:51Z",
      "native_id": "23586727",
      "source": "zenodo",
      "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23586727"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [],
  "title": "A multi-agent AI system for falsifiable retrospective neuro-type inference across 5,000+ historical figures: a design-science artifact and a cross-era holdout test",
  "title_text": "A multi-agent AI system for falsifiable retrospective neuro-type inference across 5,000+ historical figures: a design-science artifact and a cross-era holdout test",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-07T12:20:51Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/51z0hspsa82br",
  "venue": "Zenodo",
  "versions": []
}