{
  "abstract": "Conflict fatalities tend to follow heavy-tailed statistical distributions. A 2005 fusion–fission theory predicts that, when armed groups operate through dynamically forming and fragmenting clusters, the number of fatalities per event should be approximated by a power-law distribution with exponent α near 2.5, with deviations reflecting the relative robustness of larger versus smaller fighter clusters. We use Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) event-level fatality data to estimate α in recent Yemen and Syria conflict periods during 2023–2025. These conflict event datasets are small, incomplete and imperfect and only produce very crude approximations to a power law; nonetheless, the best-fit α values occupy the range 2.5<α<3.5 across most periods, which is broadly consistent with predominantly fragmented or weakly consolidated armed-group organization. Temporary reductions in α are broadly consistent with episodes in which larger coordinated clusters become more consequential. More rigorous testing will require improved datasets to become available in the future.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Department of Statistics, The George Washington University 1 , Washington, DC, USA",
    "Department of Physics, The George Washington University 2 , Washington, DC, USA"
  ],
  "article_type": "research article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Samar Moussa Abdou"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Neil F. Johnson",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-3224-3213"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/54afek3n8d825.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1098/rsos.260467",
  "fulltext_url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13730634/?tool=EBI",
  "id": "54afek3n8d825",
  "issns": [
    "2054-5703"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article/13/11/260467/483990/Patterns-in-conflict-dynamics-in-Yemen-and",
  "language": "eng",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "heading",
      "Complexity"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Mathematical Physics"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Research"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Science, Society and Policy"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article-pdf/doi/10.1098/rsos.260467/6174960/rsos.260467.pdf",
  "pmcid": "PMC13730634",
  "pmid": "42979383",
  "published": "2026-11-04",
  "publisher": "The Royal Society",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/54afek3n8d825.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-04T12:20:47Z",
      "native_id": "10.1098/rsos.260467",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article/13/11/260467/483990/Patterns-in-conflict-dynamics-in-Yemen-and"
    },
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-04T15:20:45Z",
      "native_id": "PMC:PMC13730634",
      "source": "europepmc",
      "url": "https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13730634"
    },
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-07T12:23:09Z",
      "native_id": "PMC13730634",
      "source": "pmc",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.260467"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "heading:Mathematical Physics",
      "subfield": "mathematical-physics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Patterns in conflict dynamics in Yemen and Syria",
  "title_text": "Patterns in conflict dynamics in Yemen and Syria",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-07T12:23:09Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/54afek3n8d825",
  "venue": "Royal Society Open Science",
  "versions": []
}