{
  "abstract": "Detecting a wet-weather regime and deciding when to replace slick tyres are distinct tasks. This study examines their relationship through a retrospective analysis of the 2024 British Grand Prix. A three-state hidden Markov model (HMM) represents normalized lap time and precipitation, while an entry rule requires both a high filtered Wet-state probability and sufficient pace deterioration. The analysis includes 642 car-laps and 33 complete lap-bin observations within the available precipitation record. Each completed-lap signal takes effect on the following lap. The combined rule enters on lap 27, matching the team-weighted modal reference; removing the pace or state condition advances entry to laps 25 and 20, respectively. The combined entry is retained in all 10 team-exclusion refits, but refitting a specification with larger off-diagonal transition probabilities produces entry on lap 20. These comparisons illustrate how state inference can contextualize a performance criterion while exposing dependence on model assumptions. Because estimation and rule development use the same event, the correspondence establishes neither prospective accuracy nor a race-time advantage.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2611.14538",
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Bo-Yi Lin"
    },
    {
      "name": "Michka Sharpe"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/54c87h4p9k1y6.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2611.14538",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "54c87h4p9k1y6",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14538",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "stat.AP"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2611.14538",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-11-01",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/54c87h4p9k1y6.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-13T06:21:06Z",
      "native_id": "2611.14538",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.14538"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "mathematics",
      "origin": "arxiv:stat.AP",
      "subfield": "statistics"
    }
  ],
  "title": "A Hidden Markov Analysis of Wet-Weather Tyre Crossover in Formula One",
  "title_text": "A Hidden Markov Analysis of Wet-Weather Tyre Crossover in Formula One",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-13T06:21:06Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/54c87h4p9k1y6",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}